Soybean Oil Stocks and Amounts in Outstanding Contracts in China (week 43, 2017)
According to Cofeed, the latest statistics of soybean oil stocks and amounts in outstanding contracts in Chinese major areas in week 43 ( till October 27th, hereinafter referred to this week) are shown as follows:
unit：ten thousand tonnes
|
Area/Item
|
Soybean oil stocks
|
Soybean oil in outstanding contracts
|
|
|
Week 43
|
Week 42
|
Fluctuation
|
Week 43
|
Week 42
|
Fluctuation
|
|
Northeast China
|
8.7
|
8.5
|
0.2
|
10.7
|
11.8
|
-1.1
|
|
North China
|
28.12
|
26.42
|
1.7
|
15.51
|
15.21
|
0.3
|
|
Shandong
|
15.74
|
15.82
|
-0.08
|
8.14
|
7.55
|
0.59
|
|
East China
|
48.68
|
48.2
|
0.48
|
40.5
|
41.6
|
-1.1
|
|
Guangdong
|
14.81
|
16.3
|
-1.49
|
21.94
|
19.86
|
2.08
|
|
Guangxi
|
16.2
|
16.3
|
-0.1
|
13.78
|
14.25
|
-0.47
|
|
Fujian
|
7.6
|
9.2
|
-1.6
|
4
|
4.62
|
-0.62
|
|
Henan
|
3.92
|
4.6
|
-0.68
|
1.46
|
1.515
|
-0.055
|
|
Sichuan
|
5.15
|
4.95
|
0.2
|
3.33
|
3.25
|
0.08
|
|
Others
|
9.6
|
9.63
|
-0.03
|
1.62
|
1.67
|
-0.05
|
|
Total
|
158.52
|
159.92
|
-1.4
|
120.98
|
121.325
|
-0.345
|
Comments: though oil factories start up operation this week one after another for arrivals of soybeans, operating rate is lower than expected due to delayed arrivals of soybeans in some factories amid delayed boot time(to next week). Soybean crush this week therefore is reduced to 1,752,350 tonnes by 3.75%(1,393,118 tonnes of soybean meal and 315,423 tonnes of soybean oil) from 1,820,750 tonnes attained in the week before, with a reduction of 68,400 tonnes, while capacity utilization for soybean crush is decreased by 2.03 percentage points to 52.02% from 54.05% last week.
With a lower-than-expected operating rate, stock pressure of soybean oil is slightly eased. Till October 27th, soybean oil in Chinese business inventories has decreased to 1.5852 Mln tonnes by 0.88% from 1.5992 Mln tonnes over the same period last week with a decline of 14,000 tonnes, yet increased by 10.31% from 1.437 Mln tonnes over the same period last month with an increase of 148,200 tonnes, and by 35.26% from 1.172 Mln tonnes over the same period last year with an increase of 413,200 tonnes. Delayed soybeans will arrive at port in late November and operating rate will also recover in the next two weeks, such being the cases, weekly soybean crush may return to 1.82 Mln tonnes and 1.9 Mln tonnes respectively in the following weeks. Stockpiles of soybean oil later are predicted to keep an all-time high till the stockpiling before New Year’s Day and Spring Festival, otherwise, a heavy pressure on soybean oil stocks will persist for the time to go.
Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years
