Today is 03/13/2023

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on November 7th

2017-11-07 www.mnk-9.com
    Today(on November 7th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans rebounded overnight, the same trend going to soybean meal in DCE today where domestic spots pick up following futures. Turnover of spot today is poor, yet forward basis will attract some deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,900 to 3,020 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday(Tianjin prices 3,020 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,940-2,980 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,910-2,940 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2910-2950 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,920-2,930 yuan/tonne, where USD $1=CNY 6.632). Driven by soaring crude oil prices and estimated US soybean yield cut in USDA monthly report this week, US soybeans and oils gained strength today. Additionally, in the context that a more strict environmental inspection may be conducted in North China from November 15th to solve haze problem, oil factories tend to hold out for high prices due to supply tensions in some regions and exceedingly large volume of transaction upon forward basis contract at 50 yuan last week. But soybean meal spots in a short run may be limited to jump or keep rangebound in a tight range amid recovered operating rate and large arrivals of soybean in spite of good crush margins. Practically, buyers are encouraged to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing for spots and to buy in batches when forward basis is low.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal keep stable, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,250-2,280 yuan/tonne with a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne over yesterday(Guangxi offers 2,280 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,270 yuan/tonne, rising 10 yuan/tonne; Fujian stops to report, where USD $1=CNY 6.632). Supply of soybean meal in market will keep growing with exceedingly high operating rate and large soybean arrivals in the following two months. Lower soybean meal prices overwhelm the rapeseed meal, hence rapeseed meal in a short term may continue to fluctuate with futures amid poor demands. Buyers are encouraged to buy in when bargain hunting to maintain the inventory, but more attention should be paid when chasing high prices.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal pick up steadily, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 9,800-10,000 yuan/tonne; 10,700-10,900 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,000-12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, all rising 200 yuan/tonne. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 10,000 yuan/tonne; 10,800 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,100 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, all rising 400 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.632. Fishing: till November 5th, about 9,384 tonnes of fish have been caught in southern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tonnes, among which 50,5616 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 60,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 39,000 tonnes, Shanghai 41,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB) remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,510 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,350 per tonne, USD $1,460 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which are shipments in D/J. Peru's new season fishing is projected to start in the end of November, in that fishmeal market in a short term will remain steady with good momentum for growth amid holders' willingness to high offers.

Oils & Oilseeds:

    Daily review on soybeans: today, prices for most imported and distributed soybeans remain stable, which stays at 3,390-3,440 yuan/tonne at mains ports, while some falling 10 yuan/tonne. Large soybeans will arrive at ports later where around 18.2 Mln tonnes of domestic soybeans are expected to arrive in November and December amid soaring supply of domestic new soybeans in market. Given that, some imported and distributed soybeans today fell down slightly as trades tend to hold a wait-and-see attitude toward market. Driven by estimated US soybean yield cut in USDA monthly report this week, US soybeans gained strength today. Yet, Imported and distributed soybeans will not fall significantly in light of relatively limited soybean stockpiles at ports and strong sentiments of traders to hold out for high prices. Additionally, favorable rains to come in Brazil relieve market concerns over delayed soybean sowing, in that US soybeans are not likely to rebound significantly the time Brazil has the advantages over US on soybean export as Brazil Real goes weak. Overall, imported soybean prices may pare gains once supply pressure is eased in the first 20 days of November at ports.

    Daily review on oils: soaring crude oil prices, a record high over two years, led to a rise in US soybean oil last night. Meantime, USDA is expected to lower its forecast for US soybean production in monthly report released this week, such being the cases, US soybeans close high today and oils in DCE start to rebound where domestic soybean and palm oil spots rebound with futures. Turnover is general on lower prices, but few on higher prices. Favorable rains to come in Brazil relieve market concerns over delayed soybean sowing, in that US soybeans are not likely to rebound significantly the time Brazil has the advantages over US on soybean export as Brazil Real goes weak. In the next two months, domestic soybean arrivals at ports will reach 18.2 Mln tonnes amid recovered operating rate. Notably, stocks of soybean oil are still at a record high of 1.6 Mln tonnes the time palm oil stocks are accumulated. Given that, oil spots will continue to fluctuate with downward tendency rather than rebound by leaps in the pattern of oversupply. Buyers are encouraged to buy in small batches to maintain inventories when bargain-hunting, but more attention should be paid if chasing high prices.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade one soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 6,090-6,180 yuan/tonne, rising 20-70 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 6,110-6,120 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 6,090 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 6,170 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 6,090-6,100 yuan/tonne, Fujian traders stop to report, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.632).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,700-5,830 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20-30 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 5,800-5,810 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders are out of stocks; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,830 yuan/tonne, a rise of 30 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,700-5,710 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 6,180 yuan/tonne, where USD $ 1= CNY 6.632).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil decline steadily, among which prices for imported rapeseed oil in coastal areas are 6,730-6,910 yuan/tonne, rising 20-50 yuan/tonne( November basis for Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi reaches 1,801-170; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian stops to report; Shenheng in Guangdong 1801-150 ). Last week, stocks of rapeseed oil in South China were downgraded to 92,000 tonnes by 12.3% but stocks in East China were increased to 284,000 tonnes by 6.2%, under such circumstances, there is expected to be a limit on the upside of rapeseed oil. Overall, rapeseed oil in a short term may fluctuate with futures on account of increasing stocks of domestic soybean and palm oil and enlarged supply pressure of oils.

Grains:

    Daily review on corns: today, domestic corn prices fall steadily. Main prices for corn acquisition in Shandong deep-processing enterprises stay at 1,770-1,760 yuan/tonne, some falling 6-10 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Corn prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning fall slighty, where new corn of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia settles at 1,630-1,635 yuan/tonne, falling 5 yuan/tonne over yesterday, and 1,300-1,320 yuan/tonne for corn with 30% moisture, down 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday on the lowest price. Drying new corn in Liaoning and Jilin with 14.5%-15% moisture at Bayuquan port prices at 1,610 yuan/tonne with a decline of 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday. New corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne, remaining flat over yesterday, where USD $1=CNY 6.632. Albeit new corn in producing belt keeps supplying in market, most deep-processing enterprises prefer a hand-to-mouth corn procurement to maintain basic inventories considering slow recovery of breeding industry, consequently, corn is under pressure on the back of increasing supplies. Nevertheless, affected by soaring freights and tight transportation, farmers in North China tend to hold on to crops, which somewhat bolsters corn prices in South. Overall, corn prices in a short term are expected to be weak and volatile upon seasonal supply pressure, yet, it no significant downward will come about on corn in light of production cut and capacity surge in deep-processing enterprises.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum remain stable which settle at 1,780-2,200 yuan/tonne at main ports, remaining flat over yesterday(Tianjin offers 2,230-2,250 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,880 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 1,880-1,890 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,780-1,790 yuan/tonne. Meantime prices for most imported barley keep stable which stay at 1,660-1,830 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin has not reported yet; Qingdao 1,830 yuan/tonne; Lianyungang 1,700 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,700-1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonnes, where USD $1= CNY 6.632). Sorghum market are buoyed by tight supply at Tianjin and Nantong ports and bullish fundamentals. Additionally, costs for barley and sorghum keep at a high level, which bolsters their performance in these days at ports amid strong sentiment of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable supplies on lower costs. However, corn prices at northeastern and north-south ports have fallen across the board recently, and sorghum and barley, as corn's alternatives, are also affected. In addition, fragile demands for feed also affect grain market. Overall, sorghum and barley will remain stable with strong momentum for growth when long and short positions are mixed.