Today is 02/16/2023

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on November 28th

2017-11-28 www.mnk-9.com
    Today(on November 28th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

Plant protein:

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybean prices rose last night, however, soybean meal today in DCE drops where domestic soybean meal spots are  steadily weighed down with futures. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,970 to 3,020 yuan/tonne, some falling 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday(Tianjin prices 3,010 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,970-3,020 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,970-2,990 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3000-3010 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,030-3,050 yuan/tonne). Stocks of soybean meal are increased to 670,000 tonnes by 7% week on week with good crush margins and lifted operating rate. Notably, some oil mills have now been brimming in inventories and urged traders to take delivery to relieve the pressure, but buyers are not proactive in buying in consideration of the unstable future market recently. Seeing that, turnover is limited and spots have poor impetus to jump, overall, soybean meal will pare gains in a short term. By contrast, US soybeans are still bolstered by worries about dry weather in Argentine to cut yield. In real terms, most oil mills now fall short of spots when soybeans delivered to oil mills in Zhanjiang and Nantong at ports have not yet unloaded, and in the context of concerns over GMO certificates, soybean meal is limited to fall. However, falling risks will be enlarged in light of increasingly growing stockpiles later and relieved supply tension. Buyers can stand sidelines for the moment.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,280-2,380 yuan/tonne with a drop of 30-40 yuan/tonne over yesterday(Guangxi offers 2,280 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,330 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,380 yuan/tonne). The expanded price gap between rapeseed meal and soybean meal somewhat boost the consumption of rapeseed meal, besides, more time in GMO certificates censorship and environment protection in progress may affect the production of soybean oil, thus supporting rapeseed meal in market. Notably, rapeseed meal stocks last week in South China were increased, weighing on its upside. Meantime demand for aquaculture comes to an end and some enterprises in South markedly slow down delivery, to illustrate, some oil mills in Guangdong and Guangxi are brimming in inventories. In short, rapeseed meal will fluctuate in a tight range with a limit on its upside, furthermore, after-market performance is not so good as expected.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 11,700-12,000 yuan/tonne; 12,400-12,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 11,700 yuan/tonne; 12,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishing: till November 26th, about 6,026 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern Peru in B season over 17 years, accounting for 0.4% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 1.49 Mln tonnes, leaving 1,483, 974 tonnes unfinished. By contrast, about 9,384 tonnes have been caught in southern Peru, accounting for 1.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 515,000 tonnes, among which 50,5616 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 53,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 38,000 tonnes, Shanghai 31,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB) remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,420 per tonne, USD $1,580 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,350 per tonne, USD $1,460 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content, all of which are shipments in D/J. Worrisome fish catching in Peru leads to high offers at home and abroad, overall, fishmeal market will remain stable with strong momentum for growth.

Oils & Oilseeds:

    Daily review on soybean: ports of Shangdong are laid an embargo on all ships by state commodity inspection department, consequently, prices of most imported soybeans are stopped to report,
and only some price at 3,280-3,470 yuan/tonne. US soybeans are still bolstered by worries about dry weather in Argentine to cut yield. On one hand, market confidence is buoyed as import of some soybeans for trade is to be limited in consideration of even more strict censorship of GMO certificates. On the other hand, domestic new soybeans now keep supplying in market amid limited sales of imported and distributed soybean due to strict inspections at ports, given that, imported and distributed soybeans will be pressured down upon large soybean arrivals later if soybean unloading goes smooth. Uncertainties in market still persist, therefore attention should be paid on later soybean arrivals and domestic soybean supplying in market.

    Daily review on oils: with concerns over soybean crops in South America, US soybeans and meal rebounded overnight. Yet, an organization in Argentina reveals that India government is projected to raise import tariff of edible oil this month to a new high for a decade, if it is proven, soybean oil price worldwide will be plunged, thereby dragging down US soybean oil. Oils in DCE today continue to pare gains, but still running above former closing. Accordingly, domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots are stable with slight fluctuations, and turnover is not much. The projection of higher import tariffs on edible oil by India will limit oils import, consequently, weighing on soybean oil in CBOT. Stocks of soybean oil hit a record high of 1.67 Mln tonnes the time palm oil rises to 500,000 tonnes in stocks, which are attributed to good crush margins and exceedingly high operating rate. Whereas, stockpiling ahead of holiday has not yet started though soybean arrival in China may amount to more than 26 Mln tonnes during November and January, hence with slow delivery and fragile fundamentals, oil in market in shorter term will be weak.  However, concerns over weather pattern in Argentine still persist and commodity funds are overwhelmingly spent on soybean futures buying, where about 4,000 lots are made and US soybeans for January delivery once exceeded USD $10. Overall, strong performance of US soybeans will limit oils to fall. Buyers can stand sidelines or take a hand-to-mouth purchasing, and those who are out of stock can take a bargain hunting to replenish inventories  when prices go steady.

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade one soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 5,870-6,000 yuan/tonne, some fluctuating 10-20 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 5,950-5,960 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,960 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,980 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,870 yuan/tonne, Fujian traders 5,950-6,000yuan/tonne).

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,330 and 5,460 yuan/tonne, some declining 30 yuan/tonne(Tianjin traders offer 5,450-5,460 yuan/tonne, keeping flat; Rizhao traders are out of stock; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,400 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou 5,330 yuan/tonne, Xiamen 5,380 yuan/tonne, remaining flat over yesterday).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,500-6,740 yuan/tonne, down 30-60 yuan/tonne(Basis: Guangxi offers 1,805-190 for January-March delivery; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,805-300 for January delivery; Shenheng in Guangdong offers 1801-160 for December delivery). Though rapeseed oil in South China and East China last week were accumulated, soybean oil has hit a new high to 1.67 Mln tonnes and palm oil has also reached 500,000 tonnes in total with stock building amid overall oil glut and overwhelming soybean oil for rapeseed oil, shorter term, rapeseed oil in market will be under pressure. Whereas, strengthened import inspections on GM soybeans and winter’s haze-treatment plans under way may affect operation in oil mills, thus limiting rapeseed oil to fall. Overall, rapeseed oil will keep rangebound with futures, therefore, buyers should take heed when chasing high.

Grains:

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices remain stable with upward tendency. Most purchasing prices for corn in Shandong deep-processing enterprises stay at 1,670-1,770 yuan/tonne, some fluctuating a little compared with yesterday, by contrast, purchasing prices in the northeast are revised to 1,470-1,590 yuan/tonne, up 10-30 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Corn prices of Liaoning and Inner Mongolia at Jinzhou port are revised to 1,645-1,650 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday, new corn of Heilongjiang prices at 1,640 yuan/tonne, and corn with 30% moisture are 1,330 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Drying new corn of Liaoning and Jilin with 14.5%-15% moisture at Bayuquan port prices at 1,625 yuan/tonne, up 5 yuan/tonne against yesterday, while Heilongjiang corn prices at 1,610 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne against yesterday on the lowest price. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,830 yuan/tonne, remaining flat over yesterday. Corn purchases for temporary reservation are robust in the northeast and drying towers in corn belt are active in start-up, besides, deep-processing enterprises significantly raise corn acquisition prices to attract more supplying. Notably, corn with moisture rushes in harvest and remains high in prices. Yet, from the perspectives of supply/demand pattern, though a small-time peak selling of grains may be launched in corn belts before year 2018, feed sectors tend to be cautious about corn purchasing, limiting the upside on its prices. Generally, prices for corn spots will remain strong with slight fluctuations, therefore attention should be paid to selling progress in corn belt and acquisition demands in downstream enterprises.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum are buoyant which settle at 1,800-2,230 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin offers 2,230 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 1,890 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,800-1,810 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne. Meantime prices for most imported barley keep stable which stay at 1,660-1,880 yuan/tonne at main ports(Tianjin has not reported yet; Zhangjiagang 1,780 yuan/tonne, but 1,750 yuan/tonne upon transaction; Nantong 1,800 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,660-1,780 yuan/tonne). According to customs, imports of sorghum and barley in October wane. Additionally, grain supply at Tianjin and Nantong ports become tightened, where barley at Qingdao port and sorghum at Nantong port are basically sold out, and turnover is mostly based on implemented contract, hence bullish fundamentals bolster the market. Additionally, costs for barley and sorghum keep at a high level, which bolsters their performance in these days at ports amid strong sentiment of importers to hold out for high prices in case of unavailable supplies on lower costs. Overall, grains will remain strong in market in a short term, where barley and sorghum at some ports today continue to pick up.

(USD $1=CNY 6.594)