Today is 07/06/2023

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on May 3rd

2018-05-03 www.mnk-9.com
    Today(on May 3rd), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: with market lingering nerves about possibly weakened China's demand for US soybeans and further increased Brazil's soybean production, US soybeans overnight ended down, accordingly, meal futures on DCE run low in the morning, with which domestic soybean meal spots go down today, yet turnover overall is not much. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,100 to 3,160 yuan/tonne, a drop of 10-30 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,180 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,130-3,150 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,100-3,150 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,120-3,130 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,130-3,150 yuan/tonne). To be sure, pressure from fundamentals weighs on soybean meal spots and curbs rallies in meals for one reason that meal consumption in end users is quite low when aquatic raising just start off and pigs raising still suffers from great damage and for another that some mills have to let plants idle in case of bloated stockpiles when soybean meal rise significantly to 1.07 Mln tonnes by 12% on the week. Furthermore, market participants now fix their eyes on China-US talks to be launched theses two days, therefore under such fundamentals, soybean meal may still be pressured down if talks go smooth, or be boosted impressively if failed. Whereas, many analysts reckon that such talks will be long-drawn-out, that is to say, talks these two days may make little difference. Wisely, buyers may as well make a safe inventory level and buy in when forward basis is not more than 30 or when some forward basis presents zero for July-September delivery, and be cautious about chasing high for the spots market. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal edge low, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 2,600-2,660 yuan/tonne with a reduction of 10-20 yuan/tonne over yesterday (Guangxi offers 2,600 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,680 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,660 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne). Since bloated soybean and rapeseed meals are mostly seen in domestic mills and domestic new rapeseed is to sufficiently supply the market, meals overall are curbed to price up. Rapeseed meal has otherwise trouble moving down, instead, moves sideways in a tight range on account that aquatic raising just starts off and formal talks between China and the US these days are not expected to make difference according to market calculation. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal edge lower in a steady pace, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 11,100-11,200 yuan/tonne; 12,100-12,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,400 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, all down 100 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,900 yuan/tonne; 11,800 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, all down 200 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Port stocks: Hangpu has 39000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 31,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till May 1st, about 1,152,314 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern and central Peru in A season of year 2018, accounting for 34.74% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 2,164,386 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,420 per tonne, USD $1,580 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,550 per tonne, USD $1,650 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. As Peru's futures in the outer remain weak, fishmeal holders are inclined to make shipments amid accumulating stockpiles at China's ports, under such circumstances, fishmeal is probable to be pressured down further. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: generally, soybean trade at Shandong ports is still stumbled when strict port inspections are under way, particularly, GM-soybeans for distribution are obviously capped to circulate in the food sector. Prices for imported soybeans at Tianjin port are stable, ranging from 3,450 to 4,330 yuan/tonne. At present, market participants fix their eyes more on China-US talks these days for a smooth talk in between will give a potential downward revision for imported soybeans provided if trade tension is eased, and otherwise, escalating trade tension will result in higher imported costs and thereby lift imported soybean prices to a large extent. 

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans and soybean meal ended overnight trading low after previous gains as speculative commodity investors feared that the biggest soybean importer, China, would whittle down its demand for US soybeans in time of trade tension and turn to Brazil for soybean purchases due to its ample supply, yet US soybean oil was fueled by strong crude oils. Correspondingly, oils on DCE today follow yesterday's rallies, where soybean oil ratchets up. Domestically, soybean oil spots edge high today and palm oil spots rise in part, and lower prices still attract buyers to make replenishment. The US soybean exports to China actually are suffocated the time US soybean is included in China's proposed tariff list, according to the CEO of Bunge, and meantime, latest estimates for Brazil's soybean production is revised upward to 117 Mln tonnes by Fostone. That no doubt weighs on US soybean. Shorter term, oils may rebound fractionally helped by increasing idle plants in mills due to poor demand for feed ingredients in end users and crushers' support for the prices. Notwithstanding, oil performance is not to improve a lot under such fundamentals as sufficiently ample soybean arrivals during May and July period-- around 28.5 Mln tonnes, lucrative crash margins, quickly recovered operation rate and ample oil supply unless the trade spat causes much of a stir in market. Frankly speaking, buyers had better not chase high, but stand on the sidelines and fix on talks in progress if stocks have been replenished yesterday. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,590-5,750 yuan/tonnes, increasing by 10-40 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,720-5,730 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,710 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,750 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,590-5,600 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,990 and 5,110 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20 yuan/tonne in part (Tianjin traders offer 5,100-5,110 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer basis P1809+100; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,050 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangzhou 4,990 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 5,050 yuan/tonne, being flat). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil pick up, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,300-6,430 yuan/tonne, up 30-50 yuan/tonne (Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-180; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian 1809-200; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,350 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne). Though rapeseed processing capacity is lifted attributed to good crush margins, relatively large price gap between rapeseed oil and its competing oils, soybean oil and palm oil goes against the consumption of rapeseed oil, specially, demand for palm oil will be improved as temperature goes higher. Otherwise, crushers' support and expected little breakthrough in China-US talks may somehow limit rapeseed oil to fall out of control, in other words, rapeseed oil is likely to trade sideways mainly tracking futures in near term, therefore talks in progress should be fixed on for guidance. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices move downside. Corn purchasing prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,840-1,920 yuan/tonne, some further down 6-16 yuan/tonne from yesterday, by contrast, purchasing prices in the northeast stand at 1,540-1,680 yuan/tonne. While the purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,730 yuan/tonne, being flat from last week. Drying new corn of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture=15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) at Bayuquan port prices at 1,720 yuan/tonne, being flat from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong come in at 1,840 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. The fifth round of corn auction is publicized today amid previous auctioned corn supplying in market, in detail, about 3.92 Mln tonnes on May 10th and 4.07 Mln tonnes on May 11th, and if it turns out to be the case, corn supply later will be sufficiently large. As a result, businesses in the downstream increase caution about purchases in view of fragile demand but sufficiently ample supply. That no doubt drags down corn prices under such considerable pressure which stems from government's dumping of large quantities of grains. Yet, transaction prices still give support to the reserved corn in market, and with the recovered rigid demand for high-quality corn in feed sectors later used for feed ingredients amid its short supply, good-quality corn may still take the priority in prices. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum rise steadily, among which US sorghum prices at 2,000-2,220 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,200-2,220 yuan/tonne in part, being flat; Nantong 2,120 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,060 yuan/tonne, but 2,000-2,020 yuan/tonne upon transaction; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,500 yuan/tonne and some prices are negotiable upon transaction, and Shandong 2,560 yuan/tonne; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang 2,860 yuan/tonne, being flat). At the same time, prices for imported barley decline steadily, about 1,800-1,940 yuan/tonne at main ports (Shandong offers 1,940 yuan/tonne, being flat; Nantong 1,910 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,800-1,820 yuan/tonne, being flat). Since imports of sorghum later would be few under the impact of “anti-dumping and anti-subsidy” wineries strongly intend to purchase imported sorghum for the moment and holders otherwise prefer to hoard goods and price up, in this case, sorghum at northern ports prices up today. Yet on the other hand, fragile demand for feed ingredients and declining corn prices weigh on barley, and correspondingly barley at southern ports edges down. On the whole, sorghum and barley are to remain robust at a high level rather than suffer from big ups and downs amid uncertainty in market. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.35)