Today is 03/18/2023

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on May 29th

2018-05-29 www.mnk-9.com
    Today (on May 29th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: soybean meal today on the Globex continues to trade up after China re-energizes soybean imports from the U.S., accordingly, meal futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange also move upward. Domestically, soybean meal spots today pick up steadily, and lower prices still attract some deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,860 to 3,000 yuan/tonne, a steady rise of 10-30 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,000 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,960-2,980 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,940-2,990 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,920-2,940 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,920-2,940 yuan/tonne, Fujian 2,830-2,860 yuan/tonne). Given most mills in Shandong province have to suspend operation about 13 days for SCO Summit in June, supply pressure on soybean meal is expected to ease. And fueled by growing aquatic breeding in southern areas, soybean meal is on a strong note amid crushers' support. Yet if viewed in medium and long run, soybean meal will be put under a bearish stance when China imports large volumes of US soybeans, that is to say, large soybean supply with lower costs will dwarf demand for soybean meal and result in accumulating stockpiles especially when pigs raising is not promising amid great losses. That as high as 1.15 Mln tonnes of soybean meal in coastal areas may put a cap on its prices, notwithstanding, soybean meal shorter term will go on a strong note supported by rallying US soybeans. Wisely, buyers are suggested to maintain a proper inventory level, and stay cautious if chasing high bids. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, imported rapeseed meal prices up steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stay at 2,430-2,510 yuan/tonne, rising by 20-40 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,450 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,510 yuan/tonne, up 40 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,470 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne). Though recovered demand for rapeseed meal after growing aquatic breeding in southern areas and falling stockpiles-- down to 43,000 tonnes by 2% in South China last week- boosts rapeseed meal shorter term, sufficiently large soybean and rapeseed at ports may otherwise dwarf the rallies in rapeseed meal. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal pick up steadily, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne and 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, up 400 yuan/tonne from yesterday; 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, up 300 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 43,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 43,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,530 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Albeit some domestic fishmeal of high quality is in short supply, goods holders have strong mindset to support the prices, all in all, fishmeal performance shorter term basically go stable. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for imported soybeans decline steadily, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,550-3,730 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne from yesterday and GM imported soybean come into at 3,610 yuan/tonne. Crushers are now active in soybean buying seeing good crush margins of imported soybeans, and according to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival later at ports will be sufficiently large, in detail, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 9.042 Mln tonnes with total 141 vessels in May, 9.4 Mln tonnes in June, 9.5 Mln tonnes in July. Though traders tend to price down imported soybeans when bearish pressure hovers over imported soybeans attributed greatly to the ample supply, rallying US soybeans somehow give support to imported soybeans. Shorter term, imported soybeans for distribution are expected to move sideways steadily. In the medium an long run, China may rely more on soybean imports from the U.S. in its way to expand imports of US products after the end of trade spat provided if China's imports of Brazilian soybean reach the ceiling and Argentina's soybeans losses are up to 20 Mln tonnes. If such, market for imported soybeans mainly depends on US soybeans in the growing period. 

    Daily review on oils: as CBOT last night was closed, there was no guidance for the market, while soybeans in today's trading on Globex continue to go high, accordingly, oils on Dalian Commodity Exchange rebound mildly, and domestically, soybean oil spots mostly price up amid some declines and palm oil spots partly experience volatility. Still, turnover is not that much. Ample supply of oils based on sufficiently large soybean arrivals in the following months still weighs on oils performance. And as most mills in Shandong province have to stop operation about 13 days since late May for the sake of SCO summit, oils spots will move sideways frequently tracking futures when US soybeans shorter term are also on a strong note. On the whole, oils spots will keep rangebound frequently and narrowly amid mixed long and short positions. Wisely, businesses had better make proper replenishment if out of stock and keep cautious when chasing high bids.  

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,580-5,730 yuan/tonne, most growing by 10-20 yuan/tonne while some down 10 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,670-5,680 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,660 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,730 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,580 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,000 and 5,080 yuan/tonne, a variation of 10-30 yuan/tonne in part (Tianjin traders offer 5,070-5,080 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer P1809+70; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,070 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,000 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 5,090 yuan/tonne, being flat). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, imported rapeseed oil prices down, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,640-6,750 yuan/tonne, down 20-50 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-200; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,809-220; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1809-200). Rapeseed oil futures these days continue to lead in the domestic oils market in light of gradual reduction of rapeseed oils in reserves and declining stockpiles in East China. However, rallying rapeseed oil last week was mainly driven by large capital from speculative commodity investors rather than by improved demand. Given sufficiently ample arrivals of imported soybeans, rapeseed and rapeseed oil still hamstring rapeseed oil on the market, time will tell if continuous rallies will go on in near term. Buyers therefore had better not chase bids high and turn to competitive soybean oil. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some further down 6 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,730 yuan/tonne, and 1,710 yuan/tonne for old corn, both unchanged from yesterday. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,760-1,770 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn (moisture 14.5%, volume weight 720-740 g/L); 1,620-1,710 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 650-720 g/L, mildew 3-4), all unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,860 yuan/tonne, 1,840 yuan/tonne for second-class old corn and 1,810 yuan/tonne for third-class old corn, all unchanged from yesterday. Corn supply is sufficiently ample on the market as roughly 8 Mln tonnes of corn reserved are auctioned every week, and there being said, grains supplying keep larger and larger when some hoarders step up grains selling to recoup money seeing approaching barley harvest in North China and Huanghuai areas from south to the north. Businesses in the downstream otherwise mostly take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy based on a safe inventory level. On the point, corn prices shorter term may trade down in a steady pace. Whereas, grains of year 2017 left are not many, especially gains of good quality, such being the case, corn prices shorter term are supported and move stable amid narrowed volatility when corn of good quality has the advantage in auction and freight costs in northeastern areas are also on the rise amid logistic tension. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports prices down further, among which US sorghum prices basically come into at 1,890-2,050 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,050 yuan/tonne, yet some are negotiable upon transaction; Nantong 1,950 yuan/tonne; Shanghai stops to report; Guangdong 1,860-1,880 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,280 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Shandong 2,330-2,350 yuan/tonne, being flat; Shanghai 2,330 yuan/tonne, being flat; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,960 yuan/tonne upon loading, Harbin 2,560 yuan/tonne for poorer quality; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000; Jilin 2,720 yuan/tonne; Weinan in Shaanxi 3,300 yuan/tonne). Prices for Australian barley drop steadily at about 1,800-2,000 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,990-2,000 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Shandong offers 1,910 yuan/tonne, being flat; Nantong 1,880-1,900 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,800-1,830 yuan/tonne, being flat; Canadian barley: Nantong 1,880 yuan/tonne). Given China's Ministry of Commerce drops its anti-dumping and anti-subsidy probe into imports of US sorghum, US sorghum later in China will significantly expand if former vessels delayed and stuck arrive at ports one after another. Bearish fundamentals like sluggish demand for feed still inflict on sorghum at ports. In addition, idle plants in winery are on the increase when businesses have little interest in replenishment making, such being the case, grains prices at ports are seen further weighed on. Sorghum at some ports today continue to price down, whereas, higher costs later would still give support to the market and limit sorghum declines especially when importers in the early days mostly order grain of high prices. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.42)