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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on May 30th

2018-05-30 www.mnk-9.com
    Today (on May 30th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: as the United States announced its statement to impose a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of goods imported from China, US soybeans in response slid in overnight trading. The final list of covered imports will be announced by June 15, 2018. Accordingly, US soybeans today on the Globex fall further, while meals on DCE edge lower and have resistance to fall impressively for escalating trade spat actually is favorable for domestic market. Domestically, soybean meal spots experience slight volatility with prices mixed. Turnover is general though lower prices do attract some deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,850 to 3,010 yuan/tonne, a steady rise of 10-30 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,010 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,970-2,980 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,960-2,990 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,920-2,940 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,900-2,940 yuan/tonne, Fujian 2,850-2,860 yuan/tonne). In real terms, soybean meal is put under a bearish stance when pigs raising is not promising amid great losses despite a series of rallies earlier and large volumes of soybeans arrivals in the months ahead, additionally, declining US soybeans will also weigh on meals. Notwithstanding, most mills in Shandong province have to suspend operation about 13 days from this day onwards for SCO Summit in June, supply pressure on soybean meal is expected to ease. And fueled by growing aquatic breeding in southern areas, soybean meal prices have resistance to fall and may probably go on a strong note amid crushers' support. Wisely, buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.  

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, imported rapeseed meal prices up, where prices in coastal areas stay at 2,410-2,500 yuan/tonne with a reduction of 10-30 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,420 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,490 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,450 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne). Though growing aquatic breeding in southern areas boosts appetite for rapeseed meal, narrowed price gap between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, sufficiently large soybean and rapeseed at ports, new rapeseed to supply the market in most areas nationwide otherwise dwarf the rallies in rapeseed meal. Generally speaking, rapeseed meal shorter term is to move sideways tracking futures, therefore market participants should also fix their eyes on China-US talks on June 2nd to 4th. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne; 10,900-11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 43,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 44,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till May 28th, about 2,552,657 tonnes of fish have been caught in A season of year 2018, accounting for 76.96% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 764,043 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,530 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Given new-season fishing has been completed nearly 80% in Peru, prices offered in the outer temporarily go stable, while fishmeal holders at home have strong inclination to support prices when fishmeal arrivals are seen less, all in all, fishmeal performance shorter term basically go stable. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans go stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,550-3,730 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybean keeps flat at 3,610 yuan/tonne from yesterday. As the United States announced its statement to impose a 25 percent tariff on $50 billion of Chinese goods, US soybeans in response slid in overnight trading. The final list of covered imports will be announced by June 15, 2018. China's importers therefore have strong mindset to support prices for the escalating trade spat will somehow boost domestic market. According to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival later at ports will be sufficiently large, in detail, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 9.042 Mln tonnes with total 141 vessels in May, 9.4 Mln tonnes in June, 9.5 Mln tonnes in July. Though bearish pressure hovers over imported soybeans attributed greatly to the ample supply, on the whole, imported soybeans for the moment will move on in a steady pace mainly. 

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans ended overnight trading lower in response to the United States proposed tariff of 25 percent on goods imported from China worth $50 billion. The final list of covered imports will be announced by June 15, 2018. Accordingly, US soybeans today on the Globex continue to slide, while oils on DCE edge up and increasingly expand rallies for escalating trade spat actually is favorable for domestic market. Domestically, soybean oil spots price up, and palm oil spots are mostly stable. Lower prices do attract some deals. Though soybean meal in mills keeps bloated, most mills in Shandong province start to suspend operation about 13 days from this day onwards for SCO Summit in June, on this point, crusher have the mindset to support prices. Albeit a heated-up trade tension will fuel oils market, ample supply of oils based on sufficiently large soybean arrivals in the following months and possible resumed large-scale operation after the Summit will weigh on oils performance. That is to say, oils are not to rise impressively and continuously, and may otherwise be at the risk of declining. Buyers had better make proper replenishment upon bargain buying rather than chase bids high. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,640-5,780 yuan/tonnes, increasing by 30-80 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,710-5,730 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,700 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,780 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,640-5,650 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,990 and 5,080 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,070-5,080 yuan/tonne, being flat; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer P1809+70; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,070 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangzhou 4,990-5,000 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,090 yuan/tonne, being flat). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil rise, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,690-6,830 yuan/tonne, increasing by 50-80 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-200, Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,809-220; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1809-200). Rapeseed oil futures these days lead in the domestic oils market for speculative funds go to rapeseed oil factored in its strong fundamentals. However, relatively large price gap between rapeseed oil and its two main rivals, sufficiently ample arrivals of imported soybeans, rapeseed and rapeseed oil, already new rapeseed supplying in most areas nationwide still hamstring rapeseed oil on the market. Such being the case, rallies in futures may overshadow spots. Buyers therefore had better not chase bids high. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some fluctuating fractionally. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,730 yuan/tonne, and 1,710 yuan/tonne for old corn, both unchanged from yesterday. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; 1,760-1,770 yuan/tonne for naturally drying corn (moisture 14.5%, volume weight 720-740 g/L); 1,620-1,710 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 650-720 g/L, mildew 3-4), all unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,860 yuan/tonne, 1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne for second-class old corn, down 10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Corn supply is sufficiently ample on the market as roughly 8 Mln tonnes of corn reserved are auctioned every week, and there being said, grains supplying keep larger and larger when some hoarders step up grains selling to leave room for approaching barley harvest in North China and Huanghuai areas from south to the north. Businesses in the downstream otherwise mostly take a more catious approach toward grain buying, then corn prices are weighed on. Whereas, gains of good quality are short of supply on the market, such being the case, corn prices shorter term are supported and move stable amid narrowed volatility when corn of good quality has the advantage in auction and freight costs in northeastern areas are also on the rise amid logistic tension.  

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum at ports ends early declines to go stable, among which US sorghum prices basically come into at 1,890-2,050 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,050 yuan/tonne, yet some are negotiable upon transaction; Nantong 1,950 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,860-1,880 yuan/tonne, being flat; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,280 yuan/tonne; Shandong 2,330-2,350 yuan/tonne, both being flat; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,960 yuan/tonne upon loading, Harbin 2,560 yuan/tonne for poorer quality; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000; Jilin 2,720 yuan/tonne; Weinan in Shaanxi 3,300 yuan/tonne, all being flat). Prices for Australian barley keep steady at about 1,800-2,000 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,990-2,000 yuan/tonne; Shandong offers 1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,880-1,900 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,800-1,830 yuan/tonne, all being flat; Canadian barley: Nantong 1,880 yuan/tonne). Feed consumption in end users shows little sighs to go apparently better for one thing that pigs raising remains low amid heavy losses and for another that businesses most take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy when they have assured ample supplies. As stocks consumption at ports is quite low when wineries gradually require maintenance during July and August period, grain at ports is also under pressure. Uncertainty in US-China trade spat again lurks on the market after the U.S. unexpectedly rekindles its additional tariffs on Chinese products. Higher costs later would still give support to the market and limit grain declines especially when importers in the early days mostly order grain of high prices. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.42)