According to Cofeed, the latest statistics of soybean oil stocks and amounts in outstanding contracts in Chinese major areas in week 26 (till June 29th, hereinafter referred to this week) are shown as follows:
Unit：0'000 tonnes
|
Area/Enterprise
|
Soybean Oil Stocks
|
Soybean Oil in Outstanding Contracts
|
|
|
Week 26
|
Week 25
|
Variation
|
Week 26
|
Week 25
|
Variation
|
|
Northeast China
|
6.5
|
5.95
|
0.55
|
8.1
|
8.3
|
-0.2
|
|
North China
|
28.43
|
28.17
|
0.26
|
25.26
|
25.75
|
-0.49
|
|
Shandong
|
12.37
|
11.25
|
1.12
|
11.19
|
12.17
|
-0.98
|
|
East China
|
49.25
|
48.6
|
0.65
|
35.95
|
36.3
|
-0.35
|
|
Guangdong
|
12.85
|
13.92
|
-1.07
|
26.3
|
26.55
|
-0.25
|
|
Guangxi
|
12.57
|
13.22
|
-0.65
|
13.35
|
14.43
|
-1.08
|
|
Fujian
|
8.22
|
8.8
|
-0.58
|
4.48
|
4.65
|
-0.17
|
|
Henan
|
3.38
|
3.11
|
0.27
|
0.84
|
0.69
|
0.15
|
|
Sichuan
|
3.73
|
3.41
|
0.32
|
4.13
|
3.14
|
0.99
|
|
Others
|
12.87
|
12.16
|
0.71
|
1.62
|
1.86
|
-0.24
|
|
Total
|
150.17
|
148.59
|
1.58
|
131.22
|
133.84
|
-2.62
|
Comments: soybean oil stocks continue to surge this week, and even hit 1.5 Mln tonnes. According to Cofeed, soybean oil in China's business inventories ended June 29th amounts to 1,501,700 tonnes, up 15,800 tonnes by 1.06% from 1,485,900 tonnes tonnes on the week, and up 176,700 tonnes by 13.43% from 1,325,000 tonnes on the month. Meantime vis-a-vis the same period a prior year, it is up 196,700 tonnes by 15.07% from 1,305,000 tonnes, and on the very note, average stocks of soybean oil in recent five years come into at 1,166,990 tonnes. That increasingly overflowing soybean oil in mills contributes to a common urgency for delivery taking, whereas traders in midstream and downstream have little interest in buying.
National soybean crush this week come into at 1,910,850 tonnes (1,509,571 tonnes of soybean meal, 363,061 tonnes of soybean oil) owing to further improved operation rate nationwide, up 118,850 tonnes by 6.63% vis-a-vis 1,792,000 tonnes last week. Meantime, soybean processing rate (capacity utilization) climbs to 55.31%, 3.44 percentage points higher than 51.87% last week. Total soybean crush in week 27 next week, according to Cofeed, will probably be around 1.95 Mln tonnes and 1.98 Mln tonnes in week 28 based on further lifted operation rate. In the near future, supply pressure on soybean oil will be further expanded amid accumulating stockpiles, and that pressure will persist unless China’s trade conflicts with the U.S. break out in full swing.
Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years
