According to Cofeed, latest soybean oil stocks and amounts in outstanding contracts in China's major areas in week 33 ended on Aug. 17th (hereinafter referred to this week) are shown as follows:
Unit: 0’000 tonnes
|
Area/Enterprise
|
Soybean Oil Stocks
|
Soybean Oil in
Outstanding Contracts
|
|
|
Week 33
|
Week 32
|
Var.
|
Week 33
|
Week 32
|
Var.
|
|
Northeast China
|
7.23
|
6.8
|
0.43
|
8.55
|
8.25
|
0.3
|
|
North China
|
30.13
|
30.25
|
-0.12
|
21.5
|
22.25
|
-0.75
|
|
Shandong
|
12.34
|
12.55
|
-0.21
|
11.63
|
12.287
|
-0.657
|
|
East China
|
53.2
|
53.37
|
-0.17
|
29.49
|
30.61
|
-1.12
|
|
Guangdong
|
16.83
|
16.14
|
0.69
|
26.67
|
26.58
|
0.09
|
|
Guangxi
|
12.86
|
12.71
|
0.15
|
16.9
|
14.5
|
2.4
|
|
Fujian
|
12.92
|
11
|
1.92
|
4.75
|
2.6
|
2.15
|
|
Henan
|
2.77
|
3.13
|
-0.36
|
0.46
|
0.5
|
-0.04
|
|
Sichuan
|
3.85
|
4.13
|
-0.28
|
3.95
|
2.23
|
1.72
|
|
Others
|
9.17
|
9.6
|
-0.43
|
2.12
|
1.91
|
0.21
|
|
Total
|
161.3
|
159.68
|
1.62
|
126.02
|
121.717
|
4.303
|
The operation rate this week grows higher than expectations with most mills in operation. For one thing, mills in Rizhao and Tianjin start up machines with assured electricity supply when autumn comes; for another, easing stock pressure on soybean meal these weeks and uneasy preservation of Brazilian soybeans for high oil content both send a sharp increase of operation rate. As such, national soybean crush is advanced to 1,951,792 tonnes (1,541,915 tonnes of soybean meal, 370,840 tonnes of soybean oil), 240442 tonnes or 14.04% above 1,711,350 tonnes last week. Meantime, soybean processing rate (capacity utilization) also climbs to 55.88% from 49.54% on the week, about 6.34 percentage points higher.
Soybean oil this week continue to pile up in stocks after an impressive operation rate in mills. According to Cofeed, soybean oil in China's business inventories ended Aug. 17th climbs to 1,613,000 tonnes, about 16,200 tonnes and 1.01% higher than 1,596,800 tonnes last week, and vis-a-vis 1,570,000 tonnes the same week last month (week 29), it is otherwise up 43,000 tonnes by 2.74%. Meanwhile, it is also up 173,000 tonnes by 12.01% from 1,440,000 tonnes the prior year, and in this way, average stocks of soybean oil in recent five years are now pegged at 1,323,600 tonnes.
Total soybean crush in week 34 next week, according to Cofeed, will probably reach 1.98 Mln tonnes and even 2 Mln tonnes in week 35 provided if operation rate remains exceedingly high in the next two weeks in mills. In this way, soybean oil in the near future will also pile up in stocks.
Figure: China’s Soybean Oil Stocks in Recent Years
