Today ( Sept. 25th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

    Imported soybean: Prices for imported soybeans keep firm, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,680-3,980 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. Such ample supply and high stockpiles of imported soybeans no doubt inflict on the market. Add to that, narrowed price gap between Chinese soybeans and imported ones undermines price competitiveness of imported soybeans, and limited delivery also puts bearish pressure on imported soybeans available for distribution. Subject to escalation of trade disputes with the US, blocked imports of US soybeans and basically finished soybean sales in Brazil after November may contribute to lighter-than-usual soybean arrivals during November and January next year. If such, forward soybean supply will be tight especially in the 4th quarter, which leads to crushers' strong wills to soybean bids. On the whole, imported soybeans for distribution in the short run will probably trade sideways narrowly and steadily the time market supply and demand balance struggles in trade spats. 

    Cottonseed: Today, cottonseed sees some rises of 0.02-0.06 yuan/kg against that before the Mid-autumn Festival, ascribed to the escalating trade tensions and small amounts of new cottonseeds in market, as well as traffic tensions and increasing transportation fees from Xinjiang to mainland China.But the rise is constrained by its own low ending demand, general performance of its by-products and the caution of oil mills in purchasing under thin margins from cottonseed crush. Besides, new cottonseed has gradually shown up in larger and larger volumes. The uptrend of cottonseed meal will also help cottonseed price go up modestly in the short run.

    Summary: US soybean during Chinese holiday, Mid-Autumn Festival, fell to 9.25 cents in trading. Two reasons account for the decline: first, China called off trade talks with the US scheduled this week after the latter imposed additional tariffs on 200 billion U.S. dollars worth of Chinese products; second, the harvest progress of US soybean last week was seen faster than expected. Yet, abolished trade talks between two economies actually boost Chinese market, where oils on DCE today see a rebound after sessions of declines, and soybean oil and palm oil spots also trade up. Low spot prices pick up momentum in turnover. Arguably, oils performance is dwarfed by its oversupply: for one thing, soybean oil jumps over 1.6 Mln tonnes in stockpiles based on as high as 1.94 Mln tonnes of crush last week in mills; for another, palm oil arrivals and stockpiles this month see a spike when the export tax in Malaysia fell to zero. Whereas, as long as trade friction with the US persists, oils are probable to maintain the uptrend overall. Specifically, a serious soybean shortage in China to be amid trade conflicts brings about good turnover upon forward basis, under which crushers prefer to seize oil prices. Add to that, soaring crude oil prices due to US sanctions against Iran also bolster oil performance. In this way, buyers had better maintain safety stocks upon bargain hunting.

    Soybean oil: Main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,670-5,750 yuan/tonne, up 30-60 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,690-5,700 yuan/tonne, Rizhao 5,670, Zhangjiagang 5,750, Guangzhou traders Y1901-110 or Y1901-100). 

    Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,620 and 4,750 yuan/tonne, mostly up 30-50 (Tianjin traders offer 4,720-4,730 yuan/tonne, up 30; Rizhao traders 4,750; Zhangjiagang traders offer 4,700, up 50; Guangzhou 4,620; Xiamen stops to quote). 

    Imported rapeseed oil: Today imported rapeseed oil basically keeps stable in price, some seeing a small increase. Its quotation in costal areas is mainly at 6,260-6,460 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne partially (Zhangzhou Chintex, Fujian not quoted; Dongguan Shenheng, Guangdong 1901-350 upon basis, Fangchenggang Maple, Guangxi 1901-260 upon basis). Last week, the rapeseed oil stock in South China falls to 12,000 tonnes by a weekly decline of 10%, and to 350,000 tonnes in East China by a slight weekly decline. Facing stock declines, plus supply shortage of soybean from December to January due to trade disputes, rapeseed oil price may extend its upward trend. But domestic stock of oils still counts higher than the previous years, while oils will face a slack demand due to the basically completed small-packing oil stockpiling before double holidays, so rapeseed oil may be restricted in its upward trend. But it will keep trending up in fluctuation before trade war end, so buyers can replenish properly on the dips to keep a safety stock. 

    Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil slips by 50-100 yuan/tonne partially due to a relatively large stock of staple oils and a waning demand for cottonseed oil under the basically completed festival stockpiling. But as China has declared to cancel the trade talk due to be held this week in response to additional tariffs on US $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, oils on DCE get some rises, followed by soybean oil spots to increase by 30-60. Under such circumstances, with oil mills’ propping up prices under limited cottonseed oil supply and relatively low prices, cottonseed oil is prevented from taking plunges. Short-term cottonseed price will fluctuate narrowly.