Today ( Sept. 27th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:

    Imported soybean: Prices for most imported soybeans keep stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,680-3,980 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybeans are unquoted. Such ample supply and high stockpiles of imported soybeans no doubt inflict on the market. Add to that, narrowed price gap between Chinese soybeans and imported ones undermines price competitiveness of imported soybeans, and limited delivery also puts bearish pressure on imported soybeans available for distribution. Subject to escalation of trade disputes with the US, blocked imports of US soybeans and basically finished soybean sales in Brazil after November may contribute to lighter-than-usual soybean arrivals during November and January next year. If such, forward soybean supply will be tight especially in the 4th quarter, which leads to crushers' strong wills to soybean bids. On the whole, imported soybeans for distribution in the short run will probably trade sideways narrowly and steadily the time market supply and demand balance struggles in trade spats.

    Cottonseed: Cottonseed today is supported by factors including the intensified trade spat, small amounts of new cottonseeds on the market, as well as traffic tensions and increasing transportation fees from Xinjiang to mainland China. But the price is hard to achieve large gains, due to a low ending demand, uncompetitive by-product market, and dismal crush margin in oil mills. In addition, oil mills are wary of purchasing high-priced cottonseed when new cottonseed gradually increases its share on the market. Therefore, cottonseed price is predicted to go up at a modest speed before new cottonseed floods into the market. 

    Summary: US soybean further went up and charted a high level in closing trade overnight, given that Argentina will turn to US soybean imports when China buys more Argentine soybeans at the time. By contrast, oils on DCE today edge down, with which some soybean oil and palm oil spots also see a decline in price amid not much turnover. Soybean oil and palm oil keep growing in stockpiles based on relatively high operation rate in China’s oil mills, but golden oil stockpiling in the run-up to Chinese holidays already comes to end. In other words, overwhelming oversupply still hovers above the oil market and places further downward pressure both on its futures and spots, exactly, oils today pare gains in sight. Yet China’s escalation of trade tensions with the US actually boost its oil market, meanwhile a marked soybean shortage to come also underpins oils to go on a mild uptrend amid fluctuations. Buyers may as well stand on the sidelines and take the opportunity to make replenishment upon lower prices.

    Soybean oil: Main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,690-5,800 yuan/tonne, some down 10-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,690-5,700 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,700, Zhangjiagang traders 5,800, Guangzhou traders Y1901-120). 

    Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,630 and 4,730 yuan/tonne, some down 10-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 4,720-4,730 yuan/tonne, down 10; Rizhao stops to quote; Zhangjiagang traders 4,720, down 10; Guangzhou 4,630-4,640; Xiamen 4,750 yuan/tonne, unchanged).

    Imported rapeseed oil: Prices for imported rapeseed oil today edge down in a steady pace, among which prices in coastal areas settle at 6,310-6,510 yuan/tonne, some down 10-20 yuan/tonne (Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian stops to quote, Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong 1901-350; Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1901-260 upon basis). Golden stockpiling for packing oils has almost finished, yet oils like rapeseed oil, soybean oil remain high in stockpiles, the same case going to palm oil after intensive arrivals at ports. In this case, rapeseed oil fails to maintain its uptrend but to show a small decline today. That being said, as long as trade woes remain unsolved, expected soybean shortage in China will help rapeseed oil to trade up mildly overall rather than suffer from a steep decline. Buyers thereby had better maintain proper stock level upon bargain hunting instead of chasing high bids too far.

    Cottonseed oil: Today cottonseed oil price stops declining and keeps stable due to the soybean supply shortage amid trade war, limited cottonseed oil output under the low operation rate in cottonseed oil mills, and oil mills’ efforts in lifting the low price seen in years. However, oils on DCE stay stagnant and have callbacks today, staple oils are still in oversupply despite the end of festival stockpiling, and spot price of soybean meal falls by 10-30. Facing such circumstances, plus its weakened demand, cottonseed oil is still restricted in its upward trend. And the short-term market is predicted to fluctuate narrowly.