Today ( Oct. 9th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean edged up slightly last night, for soybean harvest might be postponed by the rainfalls. Today meals on DCE top 3,500 yuan/tonne, followed by spot price of soybean meal to gain 30-70. And the trading volume reduces somewhat since most buyers finished replenishment yesterday. Soybean meal in coastal areas is priced at 3,580-3,650 yuan/tonne, seeing an increase of 30-70 yuan/tonne (Among them, Tianjin 3,650, Shandong 3,580-3,590, Jiangsu 3,600-3,610, Dongguan 3,610-3,620 and Guangxi 3,620-3,640). Market participants look forward to bullish later market where soybean supply will be tightened further by trade conflicts, meanwhile, oil mills show strong interest in lifting price as Brazilian soybean rises upon basis for its short supply. Nevertheless, the African swine fever is damaging ending demand of meals, and the current price of soybean has largely widened its spread with mixed meal, which has fostered the demand of mixed meal. In addition, US soybean may welcome a sunny weekend in planting areas, plus the bearish potential in USDA’s report this Thursday evening, so soybean meal is predicted to go sideways after sharp rises. By the way, market operators with enough stock can just wait.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal see gains today, among which prices in coastal areas range from 2,690-2,750 yuan/tonne, up 50-80 yuan/tonne (Fanchenggang Maple, Guangxi offers 2,690, up 70; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan, Guangdong 2,720, up 50; Zhangzhou Chinatex, Fujian 1901+110 upon basis). On one hand, rapeseed meal stock has tumbled to 9000 tonnes by 60% last week. On the other hand, taking the advantage of forward soybean supply gap amid trade war, oil mills are active in lifting soybean meal prices, which in turn expands the spread to 900 yuan/tonne between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. So rapeseed meal, as a substitute, enjoys an increasing demand, continuing to see a declining stock in coastal areas. Therefore, rapeseed meal price will go upside in fluctuation before trade conflicts thaw, but it may suffer strong volatility if trade talk is restarted. And buyers are suggested to wait at sideline and not to force prices up.
Cottonseed meal: Soybean meal gains another 30-70 yuan/tonne upon the concerns over trade tensions. Cottonseed meal follows to increase by 30 yuan/tonne due to its own tight supply and its further widened spread with soybean meal, and it will go upside in fluctuation before trade tensions fade. But it may suffer short volatility after new cottonseed enters into market during the rampant ASF and slack demand from aquaculture.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal price goes down slightly in a stable state and can be traded with price negotiations, with modest shipment at port generally. Northern ports: price is 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content and 11,800 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, down 100 from yesterday; and 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, down 100 from yesterday. Southern port: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is 10,700 yuan/tonne; Peruvian Japanese SD fishmeal with 67% protein content is 11,800 yuan/tonne; Peruvian super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content is 12,000 yuan/tonne. Stocks at port: Huangpu 51,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 38,000 tonnes, Shanghai 50,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 7,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,360 USD/tonne, and 1,630 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. A seasonal inspection by Imarpe shows that Peru owns abundant fishes, plus the declining demand for fishmeal, so traders intend to lower down price. Overall, fishmeal market may fall back slightly in the near term.
(USD $1=CNY 6.92)
