Today (Oct. 24th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean is quoted steadily today, of which non-GM Canadian soybean is 4,180 yuan/tonne and Russian soybean is 3,650 yuan/tonne, both holding the line of yesterday. And GM imported soybean is not offered. Due to the ongoing US-China trade frictions, soybean import volume is forecast to be less than 18 Mln tonnes in November to January, far lower that of the same period last year. Worried about inadequate supply in later market, importers show strong willingness to support prices. Nevertheless, the price advantage of imported soybean turns invisible due to its narrowed spread with domestic soybean, so its shipment is blocked. Besides, its distributed markets have little potential for further rises due to abundant supply currently. Generally, facing the competition of trade war and market supply & demand, imported soybean distribution markets may largely remain stable despite fluctuations.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed steps down partially by 0.01-0.04 yuan/kg today, due to its weak by-product markets and oil mills’ (some have stopped their purchase) reluctance to purchase high-priced cottonseed amid thin crush margins and increased amount of new cottonseed on the market. But the cottonseed market is still supported by the ongoing trade conflicts and small volume from Xinjiang under inconvenient transportation and expensive freight costs. In general, short-term cottonseed market is predicted to fluctuate narrowly, so buyers can just buy on hand-to-mouth basis.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean suffered another slight loss last night as favorable weather allowed harvest progress to pick up. The slump on American stock markets, as well as the higher-than-anticipated inventory of US crude oil, pushed oil to post a hefty loss of over 4%, and thus, both US soybean and oils on Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) today edge down. And spots of soybean oil and palm oil also slip and trade low. Currently, soybean oil stock is brought to a historical high level of 1.85 Mln tonnes by ultrahigh operation rate in oil mills, while oil mills have slackened their shipping speed as the end demand turns pale; therefore, oil market is trapped in the callback state, and oil spots may present a weak trend in short-term adjustment. But trade war will cause tight soybean supply for December to February, in addition that packing oil stockpiles before Spring Festival will gradually start in December, so oil market will post a slow upward trend despite fluctuations at its bottom amid the trade spat. Buyers can just wait to replenish on the dips after the market falls steadily. US mid-term election on November 6th and the meeting between the US and China heads are worthy of attention.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil in domestic coastal areas is mainly quoted at 5,560-5,630 yuan/tonne, down by 30-60 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders 5,570-5,580 yuan/tonne, Rizhao 5,580-5,590, Zhangjiagang 5,630 and Guangzhou 5,560-5,580).
Palm oil: Palm oil of 24-degree melting point in coastal areas is mainly priced at 4,720-4,750 yuan/tonne, down by 40-60 yuan/tonne (Tianjin 4,730-4,750, down 50; Rizhao not offered; Zhangjiagang 4,720, down 60; Guangzhou 4,700, down 40; Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: Imported rapeseed oil prices slump today, among which the quotation in coastal areas is 6,300-6,470 yuan/tonne, down 70-100 yuan/tonne. (Fujian not offered; Dongguan Fuzhiyuan, Guangdong 6,410, down 80; Fangchenggang Great Ocean, Guangxi 6,350, down 100). Crude oil slump is cracking down on the global oil market. Domestically, an oversupply pattern comes into being as inventories of rapeseed oil and soybean oil continue to grow under slack demand. And the market becomes more volatile on the news of a meeting between the US and China heads in late November. It is predicted that rapeseed oil may adjust in fluctuation in the short term, but may remain an upward trend in fluctuation before trade war ends. And buyers can just wait to replenish properly on the dips after steady falls.
Cottonseed oil: Crude oil slump is cracking down on US soybean oil, and oils on DCE today also show broad declines. Due to the fall of soybean oil spots by 30-50 yuan/tonne, as well as its own low end demand amid the increased new cottonseed oil, cottonseed oil drops by 50-100 yuan/tonne partially today. But trade war is yet to finish so that soybean oil mills are still supporting the price. Besides, oil mills are unwilling to sell under tight supply and low price, so cottonseed oil still has little room to fall. Short-term cottonseed oil market may extend to fluctuate narrowly, so buyers can just buy on a hand-to-mouth basis.
(USD $1=CNY 6.94)
