Today (Jan 22), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures rose on Thursday but closed well below from the intraday high. Meal futures decline after low opens on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go down 20-40 CNY at 3,600-4,000 CNY/tonne in tepid trade. (Tianjin 4000, Shandong 3840-3880, Jiangsu 3740-3870, Dongguan 3600-3620, and Guangxi 3640-3700.)
Chicago soybean futures fall sharply and plunge to the key support of 1,350 cents on Friday, as several agencies revised up their forecast for Brazilian soybean production under improved weather. China’s weekly soybean crush is expected to go above 2 mln tonnes in both coming two weeks, and downstream buyers are more cautious as meal prices are adjust at high levels. In addition, domestic feed manufacturers have started using wheat, paddy and barley due to strong corn prices, and high protein in wheat will also lead to a slight reduction in soybean meal use. And domestic investors will also recoup funds as the lunar new year is approaching. The aforementioned factors combine to drag down soybean meal prices. But domestic soybean meal stocks stay at a relatively low level now, and downstream buyers will continue stocking up for the festival. Besides, processors in Rizhao in Shandong Province have again suspended production due to heavy air pollution. Oil millers are under no pressure and tend to support prices, so spot soybean meal prices see smaller declines than futures. In the short term, soybean meal prices will continue following futures to fluctuate and adjust, and buyers can stay on the sidelines.
Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed up on Thursday but were far below the intraday high. Meal futures on China’s exchanges extend losses after low opens today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,710-2,800 CNY/tonne in coastal China today, a decrease of 30-50 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Soybean is in sufficient supply amid huge arrivals at ports, so soybean crush will likely surpass 2 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks. Besides, aquaculture has basically ceased, and hog capacity recovery slows due to a large amount of hog slaughter. In this case, feed consumption slows down, slackening demand for meals. Rapeseed is in tepid trade recently, dragging down rapeseed meal prices. But the cost of importing soybean remains high, and rapeseed crush maintains the low level amid limited availability, which may continue underpinning rapeseed meal market. It is predicted that short-term rapeseed meal market will track futures to move with fluctuations.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices are stable with a partial rise today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY from yesterday; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,700 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,000-11,100 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,500-11,600 CNY/tonne, up 100 CNY. Fishmeal stocks will continue reducing at domestic ports in the near term, so traders have sentiment to support and hike prices. But the demand for fishmeal is subdued as aquaculture turns slack in winter, which is capping the upward space in domestic fishmeal market. In the short run, domestic fishmeal market is expected to steady with slight adjustments.
Stocks at ports: Dalian 3,400 tonnes, Tianjin 400 tonnes, Shanghai 6,700 tonnes, Huangpu 40,700 tonnes, Fuzhou 12,500 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,010 tonnes and 3,300 tonnes at other ports.
FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Jan/Feb shipments are quoted steadily at 1,380 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,600 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.
Fish catches in north-central Peru: As of Jan 19 (local time), fish catches in the second season of 2020 total 2,393,320 tonnes, taking up 86.09% of the total quota of 2.78 mln tonnes and with the fishing average at around 35,000 tonnes per day and 386,680 tonnes remaining available. (Imarpe revised its fish catches data for Nov 16th and 22nd.)
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices stay stable with a partial decrease of 100 CNY/tonne in China today. U.S. soybean futures closed higher but were far below the intraday high. Dalian meal futures extend losses after low opens today. Spot soybean meal declines by 20-40 CNY/tonne. With improved weather conditions in South America, many organizations successively raise Brazilian soybean production estimate. Besides, soybean crush will likely surpass 2 mln tonnes in the coming two weeks amid huge arrivals at ports. But downstream buyers become cautious after soybean meal prices rise to current level, which is bearish for meals prices. Moreover, aquaculture has basically ceased, and hog capacity recovery has slowed, seeing a subdued trade of cottonseed meal. This causes cottonseed meal price to decline. Additionally, cottonseed cost remains high, which supports cottonseed meal price as well. Therefore, cottonseed meal market is projected to fluctuate at the high level in the near term.
(USD $1=CNY ¥6.46)