Today (Feb 19), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean futures closed lower on Thursday on technical selling, after the USDA projected US soybean acreage in the 2021/22 at 90 mln acres, higher than the 83.1 mln acres in the previous year and also the average analysts' estimates of 89.4 mln acres. Meal futures decline after low opens on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices settle down 20-40 CNY at 3,600-3,750 CNY/tonne. (Tianjin 3750, Shandong 3710-3800, Jiangsu 3680-3725, Dongguan 3600-3630, and Guangxi 3690-3710.)
Market demand remains tepid amid ongoing festival mood, and domestic investors are going long further in oils positions due to strong gains in oils futures. These are curbing meal prices. But imported soybean arrivals are forecast to be only 6.2 mln tonnes monthly in February and March, which will affect near-term soybean crush. Some millers have sold ou February soybean meal contracts, and soybean meal stocks are generally low, so millers have strong sentiment to support prices. And a weak U.S. dollar will probably be commonly seen as the U.S. introduces quantitative easing monetary policy. These continue to support meal prices and limit the downside space. Short-term soybean meal prices may follow futures to fluctuate, and buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.
Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures continued dropping overnight. Meal futures on China’s exchanges also expand losses after low opens today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,780-2,860 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a decline of 10-50 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Market trading is quiet now with the enchanting smell of Spring Festival. Besides, aquaculture is inactive now and will not be gradually started until March. Consequently, rapeseed meal stocks keep increasing, which weighs on its prices. But the monthly soybean arrivals during February and March could be only 6.2 mln tonnes or even lower. On the other hand, oil plants have basically sold out February contract in advance. Furthermore, factories and dealers have strong intention to raise price as some oil plants delay the resume of operation. Therefore, short-term rapeseed meal market is projected to follow futures to move with fluctuations.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices keep firm today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,100-10,600 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,500-11,100 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,100-11,500 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,600-12,000 CNY/tonne. Although new cargoes are arriving at ports recently, domestic fishmeal stocks are still low, and Peruvian sellers keep offers firm, so domestic traders still tend to support prices. But domestic demand for fishmeal is small as aquaculture is off-season in winter, and there is not buyers now right after the new year holidays. In the near term, domestic fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady.
Stocks at ports: Dalian 5,080 tonnes, Tianjin 700 tonnes, Shanghai 11,600 tonnes, Huangpu 39,950 tonnes, Fuzhou 13,700 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,600 tonnes and 4,200 tonnes at other ports.
FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Feb/Mar shipments are quoted at 1,460 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices are mostly not available and partly stable in China today. U.S. soybean futures closed lower in overnight trading. Meal futures also fall back with low opens today on Dalian Commodity Exchange. Spot soybean meal declines by 30-70 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. Market is quiet now with the enchanting smell of Spring Festival holidays. And investors shift to buying oils after seeing the strength on oils. These have curbed soybean meal price. Besides, the purchases and sales of cottonseed meal is thin, leading to a gloomy market. However, the monthly soybean arrivals could only reach 6.2 mln tonnes in February and March, which may impact the operating rates among crushing mills. Additionally, most of cottonseed oil plants have yet to resume the operation, bringing some support to cottonseed meal market. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal market will fluctuate at a narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY ¥6.46)