Today (Feb 22), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean futures rose last Friday on the strong demand and tightening stocks, and meal futures also open high to rise on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices settle at 3,650-3,800 CNY/tonne, a rise of 10-50 CNY/tonne but some regions cutting by 10-40 CNY to attract purchases. The overall trade remains tepid with some low-level purchases. (Tianjin 3760, Shandong 3720-3800, Jiangsu 3690-3750, Dongguan 3640-3660, and Guangxi 3730-3770.)
Imported soybean arrivals are forecast to be only 6.2 mln tonnes or even lower monthly in February and March in China, and some domestic processors have sold out February soybean meal contracts and are selling March contracts at a brisk pace; thus, they have strong sentiment to support meal prices. But China’s soybean meal stocks are notable higher after the festival as the demand remains slack periodically. Besides, domestic investors are going long further in oils positions due to strong gains in oils futures. These are curbing meal prices. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, soybean meal prices may fluctuate frequently in the short term. Participants can keep a close eye on soybean harvest in South America producers and their shipments to China.
Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures ended higher on Friday. Meal futures on China’s exchanges also rise with high opens today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,800-2,900 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, an increase of 30-60 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. So far, net crush margins for soybean futures have been negative. And the monthly soybean arrivals during February and March could be only 6.2 mln tonnes or even lower as a result of delay in Brazilian soybean harvest and shipment. Besides, oil plants have basically sold out February contract in advance, so factories and dealers have strong intention to raise price. Plus, aquaculture is inactive now and will not be gradually started until March. Therefore, rapeseed meal market is projected to fluctuate to stay strong afterwards.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices decline today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,500 CNY/tonne, down 100-200 CNY from Saturday; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-11,000 CNY/tonne, down 100-300 CNY; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,000-11,400 CNY/tonne, down 100-300 CNY; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,500-11,900 CNY/tonne, down 100-300 CNY. China’s fishmeal stocks are picking up at a brisker pace with new cargoes arriving at ports (especially Shanghai port) after the festival, and domestic aquatic feed demand is still sluggish at present, so that domestic traders start to cut down prices. However, Peruvian offers keep firm as manufacturers are signing new-season contracts at a decent pace, which may bring some comfort to domestic traders and help limit price declines. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady with a slight adjustment in the near term.
Stocks at ports: Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Tianjin 720 tonnes, Shanghai 20,000 tonnes, Huangpu 41,200 tonnes, Fuzhou 14,200 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,100 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports.
FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Mar/Apr shipments are quoted at 1,460 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices partly stay stable with a rise of 50-100 CNY/tonne in China today. U.S. soybean futures closed up on Friday on robust demand and tightening stocks. Meal futures also extend the gains after opening high on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal rises by 10-50 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. The monthly soybean arrivals could only reach 6.2 mln tonnes in February and March, which may lead crushing mills to suspend the operation due to shortages of soybean. This will help in underpinning soybean meal prices. Additionally, most of cottonseed oil plants have yet to resume the operation, bringing some support to cottonseed meal market. But market demand has slackened after Spring Festival holidays, seeing a subdued trade. Consequently, soybean meal inventories have increased significantly. Plus, the purchases and sales of cottonseed meal are thin, which limits its upside potential. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal market will fluctuate at the high levels.
(USD $1=CNY ¥6.46)