Today (Feb 25), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures continued sharp rises on Wednesday as storms forecast for production areas of Brazil would disrupt crop harvest activities, which would further tighten U.S. soybean supplies, as well as on a weak U.S. dollar under Biden administration’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package. Meal futures linger around the previous close in spite of gains on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices settle at 3,720-3,800 CNY/tonne, fluctuating by 10-20 CNY and attracting some low-level purchases. (Tianjin 3790, Shandong 3750-3800, Jiangsu 3720-3760, Dongguan 3730-3750, and Guangxi 3810-3830.)
U.S. soybean futures are strong, bolstered by tight U.S. soybean stocks and slow crop harvest in Brazil. China’s monthly soybean imports may only be 6.2 mln tonnes on average in February and March and are distributed unevenly, so that some mills may have to suspend crush for a lack of beans. And some domestic processors have sold out February soybean meal contracts and are selling March contracts at a brisk pace. Domestic millers now have strong sentiment to support prices. But domestic soybean meal market is not active after the Lunar New Year, with daily trade at a little more than 100,000 tonnes on average. China’s soybean meal stocks have increased to 700,000 tonnes in coastal regions, a rise of 55% from that before the festival and a rise of 101% on year. Besides, domestic oils futures also perform strongly. These are constraining rises in soybean meal prices. In the short run, soybean meal prices will keep strong in fluctuations.
Rapeseed meal: The forecast calls for tempest across the core production area in Brazil, which will disrupt soybean harvest. This may lead U.S. soybean supplies to get tighter. CBOT soybean futures ended sharply higher on Wednesday on the news and weak dollar under the $1,900 billion U.S. stimulus plan. Meal futures advance on China’s exchanges but stay around the previous close. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,890-3,000 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a fluctuation of 10 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade.
So far, net crush margins for U.S. soybean futures have been negative. And the monthly soybean arrivals during February and March could be only 6.2 mln tonnes or even lower. Besides, many oil plants have basically sold out February soybean meal contract in advance and also make faster progress in March contract. These have continued bolstered meals prices. But the demand in market is still weak as the Lunar New Year has just passed, and aquaculture will not be started until March. In this case, soybean meal and rapeseed meal stockpiles are significantly higher. Furthermore, oils take wild gains, so that investors take profit from buying oils and selling meals, which also curbs prices rises of meals. Nevertheless, the overall rapeseed meal market will likely follow futures to stay strong, dominated by higher cost due to a surge on soybean.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,300 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,400-10,800 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,500-11,700 CNY/tonne. China’s fishmeal stocks are picking up at a brisker pace with new cargoes arriving at ports (especially Shanghai port) after the festival, and domestic aquatic feed demand is still sluggish at present, so that domestic traders start to cut down prices. However, Peruvian offers keep firm as manufacturers are signing new-season contracts at a decent pace, which is lending support to domestic traders and may limit price declines. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to keep steady with a slight adjustment in the near term.
Stocks at ports: Dalian 6,480 tonnes, Tianjin 710 tonnes, Shanghai 28,620 tonnes, Huangpu 41,930 tonnes, Fuzhou 14,110 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,020 tonnes and 4,320 tonnes at other ports.
FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Mar/Apr shipments are quoted at 1,460 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices stay stable with a partial rise of 100 CNY/tonne in China today. U.S. soybean futures continued surging overnight. U.S. soybean futures perform strongly underpinned by its tight supply and Brazilian soybean harvest delay. Besides, the monthly soybean arrivals could only reach 6.2 mln tonnes in February and March, which may lead some crushing mills to suspend the operation due to shortages of soybeans. In this case, oil plants tend to lift price, boosting meals prices. Moreover, most of cottonseed oil plants have yet to resume the operation, bringing some support to cottonseed meal market. But market demand is still slacked as Spring Festival has just passed. Buoyed by the advance in soybean meal, it is predicted that cottonseed meal market will be in an uptrend in the near term.
(USD $1=CNY ¥6.45)