Today (Mar 4), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures fell on Wednesday for a lack of fresh purchases from China, and meal futures open low and decline on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices settle down 20-50 CNY at 3,490-3,560 CNY/tonne. (Tianjin 3560, Shandong 3490-3550, Jiangsu 3490-3560, and Dongguan 3530-3560.)
Chinese producers rushed to sell off finished pigs in some regions as the African swine fever is reported occasionally in January and February (especially in Hebei and Shandong), and they are slow in resuming stocks due to a weak price trend after the festival, so that hog stocks declined for two consecutive months. And aquaculture has also not get started yet. Hence, soybean meal stocks have increased to 740,000 tonnes under thin trade after the festival, and some millers have started to quicken up the delivery or facing swelling inventories. But U.S. soybean prices remain high on tightening supplies, so that crush margins for imported soybeans post heavy loss on Dalian. In addition, some domestic oil mills will suspend production for a lack of soybeans in March and April as China’s soybean imports are forecast to be only 95 vessels or 6.2 mln tonnes in March. Meanwhile, some millers have also sold a large portion of March soybean meal contracts and choose to suspend offers to support prices. Short-term soybean meal prices may follow Dalian meal to fluctuate to adjust, and buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment.
Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures finished lower on Wednesday. Meal futures also fall back with low opens on China’s exchanges. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,750-2,850 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a decline of 20-40 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Market demand remains weak as the Lunar New Year has just passed, leading to a subdued trade. Soybean meal inventories keep increasing, which causes rapeseed meal price to follow the declines. But net crush margins for U.S. soybean futures have been negative currently. And total soybean arrivals in February-March are potentially less than 12.20 mln tonnes. Consequently, many oil plants could suspend the processing during March and April due to the shortfall in soybean supplies. Additionally, aquaculture in South China will be gradually started in mid-to-late March. Therefore, rapeseed meal price is expected to pick up after a wave of descent. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make proper replenishment.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady with a decline in China today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,900-10,200 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY/tonne from yesterday; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,300-10,700 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,900-11,100 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,400-11,600 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY. China’s fishmeal stocks are picking up at a brisker pace with new cargoes arriving at ports currently, and domestic aquatic feed demand is still sluggish at present, so that domestic traders show weak sentiment to support prices. However, Peruvian offers keep firm as manufacturers have been pre-selling new-season fishmeal at a brisk pace, which is lending support to domestic traders and may limit price declines. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.
Stocks at ports: Dalian 7,850 tonnes, Tianjin 620 tonnes, Shanghai 32,470 tonnes, Huangpu 42,060 tonnes, Fuzhou 14,080 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,080 tonnes and 4,130 tonnes at other ports.
FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Mar/Apr shipments are quoted at 1,460 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China partly stay stable and partly drop by 20 CNY/tonne today. U.S. soybean futures closed lower on Wednesday. Meal futures also extend losses after opening low on Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal is offered 20-50 CNY/tonne lower in coastal regions. Hog stocks have consecutively declined for two months due to the resurgence of African swine fever during the month of January and February, and farmers are not active in replenishing stocks. Also, aquaculture has not begun yet for the moment. Soybean meal stockpiles in coastal crushing mills have increased to 740,000 tonnes. These have weighed on meals prices. Besides, market demand is still slacked as Spring Festival has just passed, which leads a tepid trade. However, U.S. soybeans prices still maintain the high level amid tightening supplies. Furthermore, most of cottonseed oil plants have yet to resume the operation, bringing some support to cottonseed meal market. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal market will fluctuate at a narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY ¥6.48)