Today (Mar 5), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures rose but closed well below the intraday high on Thursday on tight U.S. soybean supplies, and meal futures continue losses on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today, but notably narrow down losses from mid-session. Spot soybean meal prices settle down 10-40 CNY at 3,470-3,550 CNY/tonne. (Tianjin 3510, Shandong 3465-3540, Jiangsu 3455-3550, Dongguan 3470-3550, and Guangxi 3580-3620.)
Chinese producers are slow in replenishing hog stocks, which have been falling for two consecutive months, on a weakening trend in hog price after the festival and as the African swine fever is raising its head in some provinces, with Shandong, Hebei and Henan the hardest-hit. And aquaculture has also not get started yet. Hence, soybean meal stocks keep building under thin trade after the festival, and some millers have started to quicken up the delivery or facing swelling inventories. Short-term soybean prices may fluctuate to go weak in the wake of Dalian futures. But crush margins for imported soybeans are at heavy loss on Dalian as U.S. soybean prices remain high. In addition, some domestic oil mills will suspend production for a lack of soybeans in March and April as China’s soybean imports are forecast to be only 95 vessels or 6.2 mln tonnes in March. Meanwhile, some millers have also sold a large portion of March soybean meal contracts and choose to suspend offers to support prices. Therefore, mid-term soybean meal prices may post moderate rises. Buyers can wait for low and stable prices to make appropriate replenishment on the dips.
Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures finished higher on Thursday. Rapeseed meal futures bounce back after low opens on China’s Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,770-2,850 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a rise of 20 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Crush margins for rapeseed are at losses on domestic exchanges due to tight supply of Canadian old rapeseed. And net crush margins for imported soybean futures also have been negative currently. And soybean arrivals in March are forecast to be only 95 cargoes or 6.2 mln tonnes. Consequently, many oil plants could suspend the processing during March and April due to the shortfall in soybean supplies, buoying rapeseed meal market. However, African swine fever has resurged, raising farmer’s reluctance in replenishing hog stocks. And aquaculture has not begun yet. Both have caused a light trade and weighed on meals prices. But led by the high cost result from a steep rise in U.S. soybean price, rapeseed meal price is predicted to fluctuate to stay strong on the whole.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today and can be traded through negotiation. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,900-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,300-10,700 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,900-11,100 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,400-11,600 CNY/tonne. China’s fishmeal stocks are picking up at a brisker pace with new cargoes arriving at ports currently, and domestic aquatic feed demand is still sluggish at present, so that domestic traders show weak sentiment to support prices. However, Peruvian offers keep firm as manufacturers have been pre-selling new-season fishmeal at a brisk pace, which is lending support to domestic traders and may limit price declines. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to steady with slight adjustments in the near term.
Stocks at ports: Dalian 8,260 tonnes, Tianjin 610 tonnes, Shanghai 32,770 tonnes, Huangpu 42,010 tonnes, Fuzhou 13,890 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,060 tonnes and 3,950 tonnes at other ports.
FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Apr/May shipments are quoted at 1,460 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,680 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China partly stay stable and partly drop by 20-100 CNY/tonne today. U.S. soybean futures rose on Thursday on tight supply but closed far below the intraday high. Meal futures extend losses after opening low on Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal is offered 10-40 CNY/tonne lower in coastal regions. Hog stocks have consecutively declined for two months due to the resurgence of African swine fever during the month of January and February and as farmers are not active in replenishing stocks. Also, aquaculture has not begun yet for the moment. Soybean meal trading has been subdued since the Spring Festival holidays and its inventory keeps rising. These have weighed on meals prices. Besides, there is no rigid demand for cottonseed meal currently, which also leads a tepid trade. Furthermore, most of cottonseed oil plants have yet to resume the operation, bringing some support to cottonseed meal market. It is predicted that short-term cottonseed meal market will move with fluctuations.
(USD $1=CNY ¥6.49)