I. National stocks
Edible palm oil stocks in China drastically descend this week. In the week ending Mar 5, edible palm oil stocks in China total 599,000 tonnes at nationwide ports, down 11.08% from 673,700 tonnes last week; down 20,300 tonnes or 3.3% from 619,300 tonnes in the previous month; down 299,200 tonnes or 33.3% from 898,200 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. In the same period in former years, palm oil inventories were 790,500 tonnes in 2019, 666,300 tonnes in 2018 and 587,200 tonnes in 2017. On an average from 2016-2020, palm oil stocks reached 708,200 tonnes. Additionally, industrial palm oil stock at domestic ports amounts to 115,200 tonnes, a growth of 3,100 tonnes or 2.76% versus 112,100 tonnes in the previous week.
The price spread of palm oil with soybean oil continues expanding this week, setting at 1,933 CNY/tonne as of this Friday, an increase of 378 CNY/tonne from 1,555 CNY/tonne a week earlier. The trading volume totals 54,450 tonnes (spot 19,850 tonnes and forward basis 34,600 tonnes) this week, a modest decrease from the previous week. And palm oil imports in March have dropped. Accordingly, these have led dometic palm oil stocks to dwindle. In the near term, edible palm oil stockpiles will likely continue falling.
|
Region |
Edible Palm Oil Stocks（0'000 tonne） |
Industrial Palm Oil Stocks |
||||||
|
W9 |
W8 |
Change |
M-O-M |
Y-O-Y |
W9 |
W8 |
Change |
|
|
Tianjin Port |
8.9 |
9.15 |
-0.25 |
-2.84% |
-13.76% |
2.4 |
2.3 |
0.1 |
|
Hebei |
1.85 |
1.9 |
-0.05 |
150.00% |
105.56% |
0.05 |
0.1 |
-0.05 |
|
Shandong Port |
2.45 |
3.15 |
-0.7 |
-43.68% |
172.22% |
1.11 |
1.25 |
-0.14 |
|
East China |
17.03 |
19.03 |
-2 |
-13.68% |
-48.94% |
4.75 |
4.3 |
0.45 |
|
Guangdong |
22.05 |
25.37 |
-3.32 |
3.13% |
-34.41% |
2.89 |
2.88 |
0.01 |
|
Guangxi |
4.62 |
5.37 |
-0.75 |
29.41% |
81.17% |
0.32 |
0.38 |
-0.06 |
|
Fujian |
3 |
3.4 |
-0.4 |
-15.96% |
-36.84% |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Total： |
59.9 |
67.37 |
-7.47 |
-3.33% |
-33.30% |
11.52 |
11.21 |
0.31 |
II. Goods Arrivals
China’s palm oil imports in March are expected to be 400,000 tonnes (RBD palm olein 250,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes), unchanged from the estimate in the previous week. And China is projected to bring in 550,000 tonnes of palm oil (RBD palm olein 400,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000 tonnes) in April.
III. Margins and Shipments
|
Date |
Sailing Schedule |
CNF |
Duty Paid |
DCE |
Import Margin |
|
2/18/2021 |
Mar, 2021 |
1020 |
7882 |
7134 |
-748 |
|
Apr, 2021 |
960 |
7423 |
7134 |
-289 |
|
|
2/19/2021 |
Apr, 2021 |
1010 |
7827 |
7216 |
-611 |
|
May, 2021 |
955 |
7405 |
7216 |
-189 |
|
|
Jul-Sep, 2021 |
867.5 |
6734 |
6622 |
-112 |
|
|
2/22/2021 |
Apr, 2021 |
1025 |
7934 |
7278 |
-656 |
|
May, 2021 |
970 |
7513 |
7278 |
-235 |
|
|
Jul-Sep, 2021 |
882.5 |
6842 |
6690 |
-152 |
|
|
Oct-Dec, 2021 |
845 |
6555 |
6500 |
-55 |
|
|
2/23/2021 |
Apr, 2021 |
1020 |
7892 |
7360 |
-532 |
|
May, 2021 |
965 |
7471 |
7360 |
-111 |
|
|
Jun, 2021 |
930 |
7203 |
6766 |
-437 |
|
|
Jul, 2021 |
905 |
7011 |
6766 |
-245 |
|
|
Aug, 2021 |
887.5 |
6877 |
6766 |
-111 |
|
|
Sep, 2021 |
870 |
6743 |
6766 |
23 |
|
|
2/24/2021 |
Apr, 2021 |
1037.5 |
8030 |
7482 |
-548 |
|
May, 2021 |
995 |
7704 |
7482 |
-222 |
|
|
Jun, 2021 |
955 |
7398 |
6854 |
-544 |
|
|
Jul, 2021 |
925 |
7168 |
6854 |
-314 |
|
|
Aug, 2021 |
905 |
7015 |
6854 |
-161 |
|
|
Sep, 2021 |
885 |
6861 |
6854 |
-7 |
|
|
2/25/2021 |
Apr, 2021 |
1040 |
8035 |
7606 |
-429 |
|
May, 2021 |
1002.5 |
7748 |
7606 |
-142 |
|
|
Jun, 2021 |
965 |
7461 |
6900 |
-561 |
|
|
Jul, 2021 |
935 |
7232 |
6900 |
-332 |
|
|
Aug, 2021 |
915 |
7079 |
6900 |
-179 |
|
|
Sep, 2021 |
895 |
6926 |
6900 |
-26 |
|
|
2/26/2021 |
Apr, 2021 |
1040 |
8059 |
7534 |
-525 |
|
May, 2021 |
995 |
7713 |
7534 |
-179 |
|
|
Jun, 2021 |
955 |
7406 |
6826 |
-580 |
|
|
Jul, 2021 |
925 |
7176 |
6826 |
-350 |
|
|
Aug, 2021 |
902 |
7000 |
6826 |
-174 |
|
|
Sep, 2021 |
885 |
6869 |
6826 |
-43 |
|
Date |
Cargoes |
Sailing Schedule |
CNF |
Duty Paid |
Qty. |
|
3/2/2021 |
1 |
Jun |
923 |
7159 |
1.2 |
|
3/2/2021 |
1 |
Jun |
920 |
7136 |
1.2 |
|
3/2/2021 |
1 |
Jun |
922 |
7151 |
1.2 |
|
3/2/2021 |
1 |
Jun |
920 |
7136 |
1.2 |
|
3/2/2021 |
1 |
Mar |
1020 |
7903 |
1.2 |
|
3/2/2021 |
1 |
Apr |
1005 |
7788 |
1.2 |
|
3/2/2021 |
1 |
may |
955 |
7404 |
1.2 |
|
3/2/2021 |
1 |
jul |
920 |
7136 |
1.2 |