Today (Mar 26), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean futures slumped on Thursday as commodity prices went lower. Meal futures extend gains on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today as sharp losses in oils futures cool down the arbitrage of long oils and short meals. Spot soybean meal prices go up 10-30 CNY to 3,280-3,350 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3350, Shandong 3250-3260, Jiangsu 3210-3290, Dongguan 3280-3300, and Guangxi 3280-3330.)
Crush margins for imported soybeans are at heavy loss, and not a few domestic millers will suspend production due to soybean shortages in March and April. The demand from aquaculture sector will hopefully improve as the weather gets warmer. And there are sharp declines in oils prices. Hence, millers are supporting soybean meal prices. However, China’s monthly soybean imports are forecast to surpass 10 mln tonnes in May-July, for Brazilian producers will ramp up marketing and exporting now that harvests are half completed. And Chinese producers are cautious in replenishing hog stocks under the influence of the African swine fever. These are constraining rises in meal price. On the whole, as soybean meal is in bumper supply and under the context of a decline in other commodities, soybean meal prices will have limited rises and may fluctuate frequently in the short term. Buyers are suggested not to chase after excessive gains.
Rapeseed meal: Commodities moved lower successively. U.S. soybean futures closed down on Thursday. Oils market slumped on profit-taking. Meals futures continue rising today on China’s domestic exchanges. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,750-2,850 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, an increase of 30-50 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Crush margins for soybean and rapeseed futures have been negative on Dalian Commodity Exchange. And many crushing mills are idled by a shortfall in soybeans in March-April. With weather warming up across the country, demand from aquaculture is poised to recover. In this case, oil plants have strong intention to lift price, giving a boost to meals prices. However, farmers are reluctant to replenish hog stocks due to a resurgence of African swine fever in some regions, which has led to a subdued trade in meal products. In addition, Brazilian soybean harvest has reached over 50% completed, and the marketing pace is gradually accelerated, so its exports will climb up. Accordingly, monthly soybean arrivals in May-July will potentially surpass 10 mln tonnes in China, weighing on meals prices. It is projected that short-term rapeseed meal market will not rise too much and may fluctuate frequently against the backdrop of sharp retreat in other commodities.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady with a decline in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne, down 200 CNY; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,500-10,600 CNY/tonne, down 100-200 CNY; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne, down 100 CNY. Fishmeal stocks at main ports in China keep increasing recently, with the total up to 140,000 tonnes. Traders in some regions have a problem in shipment and thus lower down prices. But aquaculture in south China is recovering as the weather gets warmer, and some feed manufacturers are making new purchases ahead of the Qingming Festival. Traders are thus unwilling to sell at low prices with brisker shipments at southern ports. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to steady in the near term.
Stocks at ports: Dalian 11,980 tonnes, Tianjin 1,230 tonnes, Shanghai 46,860 tonnes, Huangpu 52,390 tonnes, Fuzhou 16,520 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,140 tonnes and 4,035 tonnes at other ports.
FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Apr/May shipments are quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,630 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China stay stable today. Brazilian soybean harvest has reached over 50% completed, and the marketing pace is gradually accelerated, which leads its export to creep up. In this case, monthly soybean arrivals in May-July could surpass 10 mln tonnes in China. However, Farmers are cautious in replenishing hog stocks amid the resurgence of African swine fever in some regions of China. These are bearish for meals prices. Besides, cottonseed meal trade continues to be tepid currently result from a lack of rigid demand, which curbs its market tentatively. But U.S. soybean futures sharply fell on Thursday. And oils futures also plunged. Meals futures further increase today on Dalian Commodity Exchange. Spot soybean meal is offered 10-30 CNY/tonne higher at coastal regions. With weather warming up across the country, the demand from aquaculture is poised to become better. Additionally, most of cottonseed oil plants are idled at present, bringing some support to cottonseed meal market. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal price will likely still move with fluctuations.
(USD $1=CNY ¥6.54)