Today (Apr 2), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S soybean futures sharply fell on Thursday on profit-taking, and meal futures follow to decline on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices go down 30-80 CNY to 3250-3410 CNY/tonne, and the market is expected to be in tepid trade. (Tianjin 3380-3410, Shandong 3275-3320, Jiangsu 3250-3300, Dongguan 3280-3300, and Guangxi 3350-3370.)
China’s soybean arrivals will be huge in the second quarter due to large amounts from Brazil, while domestic hog prices have been on a downtrend under the African swine fever and aquaculture has not been at full swing. Besides, feed manufacturers have adjusted their formula due to excessively high corn prices and applied wheat and paddy rice to replace corn, which is thus reducing soybean meal use. Hence, soybean meal market has not seen strong trade. In the meantime, the arbitrage due to strong performance in oils is also bearish to meal prices. But crush margins for imported soybeans are at heavy loss on Dalian, so that operation rates also remain low. In addition, the demand from aquaculture is hopefully recovering in warmer weather. And millers have also completed many forward sales, so that they are active in supporting prices. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, short-term soybean meal price may fluctuate repeatedly, and buyers can wait for the moment.
Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures ended down on Thursday on a large sell-off. Rapeseed meal futures stay below the previous close though go up on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,800-2,890 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, a descent of 10-20 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Brazil soybean harvest is progressing much faster, which will lead soybean export to creep up. In this case, soybean arrivals at ports could amount to 10 mln tonnes each month in May-July in China. Besides, farmers are reluctant to replenish hog stocks amid a resurgence of African swine fever in some regions, and aquaculture has not been in full swing now, which has led to a subdued trade in meal products.
But crush margins for soybean and rapeseed futures have been negative on domestic exchanges, and many crushing mills are idled by a shortfall in soybeans in March-April, tentatively curbing the downside for rapeseed meal. It is projected that short-term rapeseed meal market will potentially fluctuate.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,500-10,600 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne. Fishmeal stocks at main ports in China keep increasing recently, with the total up to nearly 150,000 tonnes, so that traders have weak sentiment to support prices under slow shipments. But aquaculture in south China is recovering as the weather gets warmer, and some feed manufacturers are making new purchases. In addition, market sources said that Peruvian fish resources in the new season are not in a good state, so that the fishing quota is expected to decline to 2.0-2.5 mln tonnes, against a previous forecast 3.0 mln tonnes. Hence, domestic traders are unwilling to sell at low prices with brisker shipments at southern ports. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to steady in the near term.
Stocks at ports: Dalian 14,060 tonnes, Tianjin 1,420 tonnes, Shanghai 51,280 tonnes, Huangpu 60,660 tonnes, Fuzhou 18,530 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,100 tonnes and 4,235 tonnes at other ports.
FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Apr/May shipments are quoted lower by 40 USD at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,590 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China partly decline by 50-100 CNY/tonne today. U.S. soybean futures sharply fell on Thursday on profit-taking. Meals futures also follow the declines on Dalian Commodity Exchange. Spot soybean meal is offered 30-80 CNY/tonne lower in coastal regions. Hog prices maintain the downside due to a resurgence of African swine fever in China, and aquaculture has not been in full swing yet. Besides, cottonseed meal trade continues to be tepid currently result from a lack of rigid demand, which is bearish on its price. However, most of cottonseed oil plants are idled at present, bringing some support to cottonseed meal market. With weather warming up across the country, the demand from aquaculture will be gradually recovering. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal price will likely still move with frequent fluctuations.
(USD $1=CNY ¥6.56)