Today (Apr 9), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S soybean futures rose on Thursday, but meal futures fluctuate at a narrow range on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal prices steadily go up 10-20 CNY to 3,310-3,430 CNY/tonne, attracting some low-level purchases. (Tianjin 3410-3430, Shandong 3320-3330, Jiangsu 3310-3380, Guangdong 3310-3350, and Guangxi 3350-3370.)
Crush margins for imported soybeans suffer sustained loss on Dalian, so soybean crush further drags to a quite low level this week. Meanwhile, there is a sign of improvement in soybean meal trade this week, so that some millers have started to set bounds to orders and deliveries. In addition, domestic farmers may increase fish seedlings on a recent rise in fish price and under warming weather, so the demand in aquaculture sector will likely be improving. Millers have strong sentiment to support prices now. But China’s soybean arrivals may climb to 27 mln tonnes in April-June as South American soybeans are flooding into the market. And domestic producers are cautious in replenishing due to a downtrend in hog prices. Besides, feed manufacturers have adjusted their formula due to excessively high soybean meal and corn prices and applied wheat and paddy rice to replace corn, so high-protein wheat will also reduce soybean meal use. These are curbing rises in meal price. Overall, short-term soybean meal market is predicted to keep its strength in fluctuations on strong cost support and a sign of improving trade, and participants can wait for fresh cues from the USDA’s report due Friday.
Rapeseed meal: U.S. soybean futures closed up on Thursday. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuate to go up on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange today. Spot rapeseed meal is offered at 2,780-2,860 CNY/tonne in coastal regions, an increase of 10 CNY/tonne, in tepid trade. Crush margins for soybean and rapeseed futures have been negative on domestic exchanges. Many crushers are idled by a shortfall in soybeans in April. Moreover, the demand from aquaculture is poised to recover with the weather warming up. In this case, oil plants tend to lift price, which boosts meals prices. However, farmers are reluctant to replenish hog stocks as hog prices keep declining amid a resurgence of African swine fever. Plus, China’s soybean arrivals in April-June could amount to 27 mln tonnes, weighing on meals prices. It is projected that rapeseed meal price will not maintain an upward trend and mainly fluctuate at the high level in the near term.
Imported fishmeal: Imported fishmeal prices steady in China today, in tepid trade. Peruvian Standard SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,900 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 65% protein content is 10,000-10,200 CNY/tonne; Peruvian higher-quality SD with 67% protein content is 10,500-10,600 CNY/tonne; and Peruvian Super Prime SD with 68% protein content is 11,000-11,200 CNY/tonne. Fishmeal stocks at main ports in China keep increasing recently, with the total up to nearly 170,000 tonnes, so that traders have weak sentiment to support prices under slow shipments. But aquaculture in south China is recovering as the weather gets warmer, and some feed manufacturers are making new purchases. Meanwhile, Peruvian production ministry may delay the announcement of new fishing quota and catch starting time until late April, as the country will have the president election on April 11, which will lead to changes in Cabinet. Therefore, domestic traders are unwilling to sell at low prices. Domestic fishmeal market is predicted to steady in the near term.
Stocks at ports: Dalian 17,660 tonnes, Tianjin 1,810 tonnes, Shanghai 55,875 tonnes, Huangpu 66,710 tonnes, Fuzhou 19,130 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,160 tonnes and 4,525 tonnes at other ports.
FOB quotes from foreign markets today: Apr/May shipments are quoted steadily at 1,370 USD/tonne for Peruvian Standard with 65% protein content and at 1,590 USD/tonne for Peruvian super with 68% protein content. Chilean Standard with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,430 USD/tonne, and super with 68% protein content at 1,600 USD/tonne.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal prices in China mainly stay stable with a partial decline of 50 CNY/tonne today. With the forthcoming marketing season for soybeans in South America, China’s soybean arrivals in April-June could ramp to 27 mln tonnes. However, farmers are wary of replenishing hog stocks due to declining hog prices affected by a resurgence of African swine fever in China. And cottonseed meal trade continues to be tepid due to a lack of demand support, which is bearish on its price. But U.S. soybean futures ended higher on Thursday. Meals futures fluctuate narrowly on Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Spot soybean meal stay firm with an increase of 10-20 CNY/tonne in coastal regions. In addition, farmers will likely feed more fingerlings with the warmer weather and higher price of aquatic products, thereby the demand from aquaculture is expected to gradually pick up. Thus, oil mills have strong intention to prop up prices, boosting cottonseed meal price. Therefore, short-term cottonseed meal price will likely fluctuate at a narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY ¥6.54)