China Soybean Weekly Report--as of Apr 23, 2021

2021-04-27 www.mnk-9.com

I. Soybean

Price

Domestic soybean: Domestic consumers reduce their demand for bean products, for vegetables are in bumper supplies and at low vegetable prices in warming weather. Local farmers show more interest in selling soybeans as they need to cash out to purchase material for spring planting, and some traders also have stronger sentiment to liquidate stocks. Moreover, downstream protein enterprises are cautious and taking hand-to-mouth buying, so the market is in thin demand. And as imported soybean prices have been fractionally lower at ports recently, bean-product manufacturers have turned to source imported soybeans to save cost. These are adding bearish sentiment to domestic soybeans. However, local farmers reported that soybean planting acreage will reduce this year, mainly due to stubbornly high corn prices and a rise in subsidy for corn. This is positive to soybean market. Overall, domestic soybean prices may fluctuate in the short run, and participants can keep an eye on arrivals of non-GM soybean arrivals at domestic ports and relevant policies.

Imported soybean: China may bring in 27 mln tonnes of soybeans from April to June as Brazil is marketing and exporting soybeans at a brisker pace. And downstream buyers are inactive in purchases under declining price movements, so the demand for imported soybeans is not strong at present and port shipments remain tepid. These are negative to imported soybean market in China. However, U.S. soybean futures have risen to a nearly seven-year high, as cold weather in the U.S. was slowing down spring fieldwork and old soybean crop were in tightening supply in the U.S. under brisk global demand for vegetable oils, in addition a weak U.S. dollar. This is lending support to the cost side for imported soybeans. In a hybrid of the bull and the bear, short-term imported soybean market in China is predicted to fluctuate in the short run, and participants can keep an eye on imported soybean arrivals and demand in China.

China's Soybean Weekly Price（CNY/Tonne）
Region		Grade	This week	Last week	Variation
Northeast China	Heilongjiang	Domestic, GB Grade 3	5660	5660	0
	Inner Mongolia	Domestic, GB Grade 3	5600	5620	-20
	Heilongjiang	Imported, Russia	N/A	N/A
East China	Jiangsu	Domestic soybean	7300	7300	0
	Shandong	Imported, Argentina	N/A	N/A
		GM, PNW	N/A	N/A
		GM, U.S. GULF	4900-4950	4890-4960	-10
North China	Tianjin	Non-GM, Ethiopia	N/A	N/A
		Non-GM, Ukraine	5820	5900	-80
		Non-GM, Canada	5920	6020	-100
		GM, PNW	N/A	N/A
		GM, U.S. GULF	N/A	N/A
National average		Domestic soybean	5660	5660	0
National average		Imported soybean	4910	4910	0

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Crush: Operation rates continue picking up as expected this week (Apr 17-23). Soybean crush at domestic mills totals 1,779,000 tonnes (meal 1,405,410 tonnes and oil 338,010 tonnes), up 162,000 tonnes or 10.01% from 1,617,000 tonnes last week. Meanwhile, operation rates (capacity utilization) are 50.17%, up 4.57% from 45.60% in the previous week. Soybean crush is expected to increase to 1.86 mln tonnes next week, but will fall to 1.80 mln tonnes in week 18 due to May Day holidays and as many soybean crushers in Rizhao, Shandong Province, will be in downtime when steam supply will be affected by the maintenance of power plants.

Soybean crush nationwide is estimated at 7.05 mln tonnes in April at current utilization rate, against the 6.8288 mln tonnes in the previous month and 6.7296 mln tonnes a year earlier.

In the crop year of 2020/21 (from Oct 1st, 2020), China’s soybean crush totals 50,898,334 tonnes, up 4,826,334 tonnes or 10.48% from 46,072,000 tonnes a year earlier.

In the calendar year of 2021 (from Jan. 1st, 2021), China’s soybean crush amounts to 25,407,396 tonnes, up 1,369,039 tonnes or 5.70% from 24,038,357 tonnes of the corresponding period in 2020.

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Inventory: Soybean stocks keep reducing this week as soybean crush further picks up to 1.77 mln tonnes. In the week as of Apr 23, China’s imported soybean stocks in coastal regions total 3,543,900 tonnes, down 187,000 tonnes by 5.01% from 3,730,900 tonnes last week and up by 48.78% from 2,381,900 tonnes from a year earlier.

Arrivals and the outlook: According to Cofeed, soybean import is predicted to be 117 cargoes or 7.597 mln tonnes for April, 10.7 mln tonnes for May, 9.3 mln tonnes for June, 8.2 mln tonnes for July, and 7.9 mln tonnes for August. The data will be updated every week based on buying and shipment.

II. Soybean Meal

Price: Domestic soybean meal prices continue rising this week (Apr 19-23). As of this Friday, prices settle at 3,430-3,560 CNY/tonne in domestic coastal regions, a rise of 120-150 CNY/tonne.

China's Soybean Meal Weekly Price (CNY/Tonne)
Region		This week	Last week	Variation
Northeast China	Jilin	3,650	3,540	110
North China	Tianjin	3,560	3,420	140
North China	Hebei	3,550	3,410	140
Central China	Hubei	3,550	3,420	130
Central China	Henan	3,510	3,440	70
East China	Shandong	3,485	3,360	125
	Jiangsu	3,445	3,310	135
	Zhejiang	3,450	3,320	130
	Shanghai	3,480	3,320	160
	Fujian	3,490	3,360	130
	Anhui	3,500	3,390	110
South China	Guangdong	3,450	3,330	120
South China	Guangxi	3,520	3,370	150
National average		3,489	3,357	132

Inventory: Soybean meal stocks are little changed this week as quicker delivery ahead of the Labour Day holidays offsets the rise in soybean crush. In the week as of Apr 23, China’s soybean meal stocks in coastal regions are 649,000 tonnes, up 200 tonnes by 0.03% from 648,800 tonnes last week and also up 376.85% from 136,100 tonnes from a year earlier.

说明: 1619419778(1)

III. Soybean Oil

Price: Domestic soybean oil prices follow Dalian futures to rise this week (Apr 19-23). Grade I soybean oil price is 9,510-9,800 CNY/tonne, mostly up 230-470 CNY from last Friday. The overall nationwide Grade I soyoil price index is 9,640 CNY/tonne, a weekly rise of 340 CNY or 3.66% from 9,300 CNY/tonne last week.

China's Soybean Oil Weekly Price (CNY/Tonne)
Region		Grade	This week	Last week	Variation
South China	Guangzhou	GB Grade 1	9,510	9,280	230
South China	Guangzhou	GB Grade 3	N/A	N/A
North China	Qinhuangdao, Hebei	GB Grade 1	9,700	9,400	300
	Qinhuangdao, Hebei	GB Grade 3	9,600	9,300	300
	Tianjin	GB Grade 1	9,680	9,280	400
	Tianjin	GB Grade 3	N/A	N/A
East China	Rizhao, Shandong	GB Grade 1	9,600	9,280	320
	Rizhao, Shandong	GB Grade 3	N/A	N/A
	Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu	GB Grade 1	9,800	9,380	420
	Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu	GB Grade 3	N/A	N/A
National average		GB Grade 1	9,640	9,270	370
National average		GB Grade 3	9,590	9,320	270

Inventory: Alongside a continued rise in operation rates, soybean oil stocks also start to increase this week. In the week ending Apr 23, China’s soybean oil commercial stocks total 591,700 tonnes, up 3.2% from 573,200 tonnes last week, down 16.7% from 710,000 tonnes month on month, and down 30.1% from 847,000 tonnes year on year. And the five-year (2016-2020) average at the same period is 1,076,200 tonnes.

说明: 1619419110(1)

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